Takeaway

USD/CAD has rallied over 4% from its August lows across five consecutive weekly advances, but the move is stalling against major resistance at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of 1.4292. The presenter argues that a confirmed daily close above 1.4293 is required to trigger the next leg higher, while any break below 1.4193 would signal a larger corrective phase ahead of key North American macroeconomic data.

What the presenter said

• USD/CAD is positioned to log a fifth consecutive weekly gain, up more than 4% from August lows [00:13].
• The advance has halted at 1.4292, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the 2020–2025 decline, with the weekly and monthly opening range forming just underneath [00:28, 00:37].
• The pitchfork median line converges on the June high-week close at 1.4193 [00:47].
• Price momentum sits in overbought territory, maintaining an active support trigger [01:35].
• A drop below 1.4194/1.4193 would threaten a broader correction within the primary uptrend [01:47, 03:11].
• Initial support sits at 1.4233 (the objective monthly open), where the lower parallel of the pitchfork converges [02:22].
• Initial resistance stands at 1.4292/1.4293; a daily or weekly close above this level is necessary to validate an uptrend continuation [02:32, 02:37, 03:51].
• Clearing 1.4293 targets 1.4335 (1.618% extension of the January advance), followed by 1.4374–1.4383 (March 2025 high-week close and objective 2025 yearly open) [02:43, 02:50].
• If 1.4233 and 1.4193 fail, downside targets sit at 1.4140 and 1.4079 (38.2% retracement of the August advance) [03:27]. For the broader rally to hold, losses must be restricted to 1.4200–1.4193 [03:41].
• Macro drivers include Canadian employment data (consensus: 7,000 jobs added, unemployment up to 6.5% from 6.4%), Michigan Consumer Sentiment, and next Wednesday's U.S. CPI print [04:34, 04:46, 04:55]. Crude oil is also moving higher on Middle East volatility [05:14].

Trade ideas

No actionable trade was put forward. The presenter's market view is neutral-to-bullish pending a range breakout: awaiting a confirmed daily close above 1.4293 to signal long continuation toward 1.4335 and 1.4374–1.4383, while warning that a breakdown below 1.4193 would trigger a correction toward 1.4140 and 1.4079.

Levels and data cited

• Resistance: 1.4292 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 2020–2025 decline), 1.4293 (breakout pivot), 1.4335 (1.618% extension of January advance), 1.4374 (March 2025 high-week close), 1.4383 (objective 2025 yearly open).
• Support / Invalidation: 1.4233 (monthly open / lower parallel), 1.4200–1.4193 (June high-week close / median line / maximum downside for bullish continuation), 1.4140, 1.4079 (38.2% retracement of August move).
• External Data:
  • FOMC: Last meeting rate vote was unanimous.
  • Fed Funds Futures: Roughly 86% probability of at least another 25 bps hike in December.
  • Canadian Employment: Expected +7,000 net change; unemployment rate expected to uptick from 6.4% to 6.5%.
  • U.S. Data: Michigan Consumer Sentiment (inflation component) and upcoming CPI print.

Risks and what would invalidate this

• Overbought momentum conditions risk triggering an exhaustion pullback.
• A slip back below 1.4194/1.4193 would invalidate the immediate bullish thesis and threaten a larger correction within the broader uptrend.