Takeaway

The presenter argues for an increasingly bullish natural gas backdrop, driven by sub-five-year-average US storage builds, robust LNG feedgas demand, critically low UK/European storage levels, and incoming cooler October weather. While November futures recently tested resistance at 3.215 and may see a brief hourly pullback, the speaker expects winter contracts to push higher, targeting 3.9620 on the January contract.

What the presenter said

• [00:00] The November natural gas contract is trading higher at 3.157 (+4.3 cents / 1.38%), with daily RSI rising and the 13/48 EMAs poised for a bullish cross on a positive close [00:20].
• [00:36] November futures touched an intraday high of 3.2190 after testing resistance at 3.215, but hourly RSI is crossing lower, signaling potential near-term consolidation.
• [00:56] EIA storage expectations for tomorrow sit at +73 to +77 BCF, tighter than the five-year average of +96 BCF and comparable to last year's +77 BCF.
• [01:15] The January contract held descending channel support and is moving upward, targeting the top of the channel around 3.9620.
• [01:51] Power burn remains elevated: ERCOT demand is forecast at 72,950 MW with wind output down to ~2,400 MW, forcing natural gas to supply 42.1% (22,307 MW) of the fuel mix [02:09], while MISO hit its $10,000/MWh price cap yesterday [02:31].
• [03:24] Cold weather is projected to descend from Canada through the Pacific Northwest into Colorado, as well as New England pushing into Pennsylvania by October 20.
• [04:42] European underground storage is at 72.8% (Germany at 59%, Latvia at 49%), while total UK gas and LNG storage is only ~36% full with the Rough storage facility completely empty [06:35].
• [07:00] TTF January futures are up over 3.38% around $25, with technicals pointing toward a test of the $27.90 high.
• [09:13] US LNG facilities are ramping: Cameron is taking 1.5 BCF/d, Creole Trail is flowing 1.49 BCF/d (out of 1.7 BCF/d capacity), Corpus Christi is at 2.58 BCF/d (out of 2.75 BCF/d), Calcasieu Pass is just under 1.7 BCF/d, and Cove Point restrictions were terminated on October 6.
• [10:08] Golden Pass Train 1 is flowing 411,000 MMBtu (up from 280,000 MMBtu yesterday) as it works through commissioning teething issues.
• [10:53] Tropical Storm Isaías (40 mph winds) is forecast to reach hurricane strength over warm Gulf waters (84–86°F) tonight and make landfall near Mobile Bay, Alabama on Saturday at 1 AM.
• [13:31] Teleconnection indices show the Arctic Oscillation in a positive phase (+2.20), while NAO (0.28) and PNA (0.48) sit in neutral territory.

Trade ideas

No actionable trade ideas were put forward. The presenter holds an overall bullish market view, looking for the US January contract to reach 3.9620 and TTF January to test $27.90, despite potential short-term hourly pullbacks on the prompt month.

Levels and data cited

• Price Levels:
  • Natural Gas (November): 3.157 (current), 3.101 (daily pivot), 3.215 (resistance), 3.2190 (intraday high).
  • Natural Gas (January): 3.9620 (upside channel target).
  • TTF Natural Gas (January): $25 (current), $27.90 (test target).
  • Appalachia Cash: ~$1 per MMBtu.
• Storage & Power Data:
  • EIA Storage: +73 to +77 BCF expected tomorrow vs. +77 BCF last year and +96 BCF 5-year average.
  • EU Storage: 72.8% full overall; Germany 59%, Latvia 49%, Ukraine 37%, UK ~35–36% (Rough facility at 0%).
  • Power Grids: ERCOT expected LMP up to $170; MISO LMP hit $10,000/MWh; ISO New England up to $160; Ontario up to $91.70.
  • LNG Feedgas: Gator Express at 3.953 BCF/d; Cameron LNG at 1.5 BCF/d; Creole Trail at 1.49 BCF/d; Corpus Christi at 2.58 BCF/d; Calcasieu Pass at <1.7 BCF/d; Golden Pass Train 1 at 411,000 MMBtu.

Risks and what would invalidate this

• Short-Term Technical Reversal: Hourly RSI crossing to the downside indicates potential immediate pullback risk for the November contract.
• Infrastructure Delays: Ongoing commissioning teething problems at Golden Pass Train 1 could slow the pace of LNG export demand growth.
• Weather & Storm Dynamics: Tropical Storm Isaías in the Gulf of Mexico could alter near-term production and regional demand profiles.