Takeaway

Field reports across Illinois, Iowa, and Minnesota indicate a mixed harvest outlook as excessive precipitation and cloudy late-summer conditions reduce corn yields and elevate moisture levels, while early soybean yields are outperforming baseline averages. Sharply escalating input costs—with on-farm diesel rising from spring contract levels near $2.60–$2.70 to nearly $6.00—mean producers are relying heavily on a sustained rally in cash grain prices to protect operating margins.

What the presenter said

• [00:00] The Harrell family farm in Carthage, Illinois, is facing a difficult growing season due to weather volatility, leaving 12 rows of downed corn for an adjuster inspection [00:20].
• [00:30] Carthage corn yields are disappointing, tracking 15 to 20 bushels per acre below last year due to early-season wetness [00:34].
• [00:57] Carthage fields saw over 7 inches of rain in June, followed by another 7 inches across a three-day period in August along with 10 days of overcast skies that impaired grain fill [01:05].
• [01:19] Harvested corn in the region is carrying higher moisture levels than previous years.
• [01:38] Farm diesel costs have surged from contracted levels of $2.60–$2.70 in the spring to "pushing $6" currently.
• [01:55] Grower Chris Harrell noted he would prefer $5–$6 corn prices over an extra 20 bushels of yield, emphasizing that sustaining the current grain price rally is vital for farm economics [02:10].
• [02:25] Multi-generational perspective from 95-year-old Lawrence Harrell anticipates an overall average production year.
• [03:05] Soybean yields for the Harrell farm are pacing slightly above their five-year average, with roughly a quarter of acreage harvested.
• [03:13] Cody White (Maroa, IL) reported corn yields 20 to 30 bushels behind last year following recent rains, though soybean performance remains solid.
• [03:21] Matt McCarthy (Newell, IA) has harvested over 700 acres of corn with yields at or slightly above the 225 bu/acre farm average; moisture is running above 20%, requiring mechanical drying [03:28].
• [03:37] Darrick Burnikel (Cresco, IA) noted 0.6 inches of rain, with positive early yield reports as soybeans dry down.
• [03:47] Pat Sheldon (Percival, IA) experienced 3 inches of rain last week (9 inches over the last three weeks); 250 acres of corn have been harvested at 15–16% moisture, but standing water remains an issue [03:54].
• [04:04] Chris Schenk (Mankato, MN) began harvesting soybeans at near 13% moisture, with early yields coming in 15% above the farm average.

Trade ideas

None stated. The presenter did not issue actionable trade recommendations, maintaining a descriptive market view focused on weather-driven corn yield drag, better-than-expected soybean yields, and the need for firm grain prices to offset elevated drying and fuel expenses.

Levels and data cited

• Corn Price Preference: "$5-$6" target range noted by Chris Harrell.
• Farm Diesel: "$2.60-$2.70" (spring contract level) vs. "pushing $6" (current price).
• Corn Yields: 15 to 20 bu/acre below last year (Carthage, IL); 20 to 30 bu/acre behind last year (Maroa, IL); 225 bu/acre farm average (Newell, IA).
• Soybean Yields: Slightly above 5-year average (Carthage, IL); 15% above farm average (Mankato, MN).
• Grain Moisture: Corn >20% (Newell, IA); Corn 15–16% (Percival, IA); Soybeans near 13% (Mankato, MN).
• Rainfall & Weather: Carthage, IL saw 7+ inches in June, 7 inches in a 3-day August span, and 10 cloudy days in August; Percival, IA saw 3 inches last week and 9 inches across the last 3 weeks; Cresco, IA saw 0.6 inches.

Risks and what would invalidate this

• Inability to sustain the rally in grain market prices.
• Continued volatility and elevation in operating input costs (diesel).
• Additional adverse weather events disrupting harvest pace or worsening grain fill.
• High corn moisture content increasing post-harvest drying costs.
• Field access constraints caused by standing water.