Takeaway

The presenter outlines tactical short setups in Gold, Silver, and Natural Gas following recent structural breakdowns, while treating Crude Oil as a range-bound market awaiting a breakout. For Natural Gas, the market sits at a critical make-or-break juncture where a confirmed close below the neckline and 50 EMA would trigger a short continuation, whereas holding above the level keeps the broader bullish trend intact.

What the presenter said

• [00:35] Natural Gas has completed a head-and-shoulders pattern, having reached its termination zone.
• [01:07] A solid-body break below the Natural Gas neckline is required to confirm further downside.
• [01:23] For a valid sell setup on Natural Gas, the presenter requires at least two solid red candle closes below the 50 EMA.
• [01:32] If the active 4-hour Natural Gas candle closes back above the neckline, price is likely to rebound.
• [02:20] On higher timeframes, Natural Gas remains above its 20 and 50 EMAs, suggesting the broader trend is intact and current weakness could be a pullback before higher highs.
• [03:29] On OANDA pricing, two candles have already closed below the 50 EMA on Natural Gas, providing potential short entries on pullbacks and bearish engulfing formations.
• [04:41] Both Gold and Silver have experienced breaks of structure and are currently forming pullbacks, with the presenter preparing short trades.
• [04:56] Short confirmation on Gold and Silver requires a pullback showing a bearish engulfing candle and a successful retest of broken structure.
• [05:40] Crude Oil is consolidating within a range, displaying a potential bearish double-top structure.
• [05:57] A strong bounce and close above the consolidation range would confirm a bullish breakout to the upside in Crude Oil.
• [06:38] Conversely, a decisive breakdown below the range floor would direct Crude Oil toward further downside.
• [06:47] On the daily chart, Crude Oil maintains its position above the 50 EMA with a bullish engulfing pattern, supporting the case for an eventual upside break.
• [06:55] The presenter notes that Crude Oil remains highly sensitive to geopolitical fundamentals, such as war risks, which could abruptly override technical patterns.

Trade ideas

• Natural Gas

  • Direction: Short
  • Entry: After two red candles close below the 50 EMA and neckline
  • Target: Trend line
  • Stop: Not stated (implied)
  • Horizon: Short-term
  • Conviction: High

• Gold

  • Direction: Short
  • Entry: Following a valid pullback with a bearish engulfing candle and retest of previous structure
  • Target: Towards the downside
  • Stop: Not stated
  • Horizon: Short-term
  • Conviction: High

• Silver

  • Direction: Short
  • Entry: Following a valid pullback with a bearish engulfing candle and retest of previous structure
  • Target: Towards the downside
  • Stop: Not stated
  • Horizon: Short-term
  • Conviction: High

• Crude Oil (Upside Breakout)

  • Direction: Long
  • Entry: Solid breakout and close above the upper range boundary
  • Target: Next major structure resistance
  • Stop: Not stated
  • Horizon: Unspecified
  • Conviction: Medium

• Crude Oil (Downside Breakdown)

  • Direction: Short
  • Entry: Following a confirmed break below the lower range boundary
  • Target: Towards the downside
  • Stop: Not stated
  • Horizon: Unspecified
  • Conviction: Medium

Risks and what would invalidate this

• Natural Gas: If the 4-hour candle closes back above the neckline, the bearish head-and-shoulders breakdown is invalidated and price could push higher.
• Crude Oil: Extended consolidation leading to a breakdown below range support would invalidate bullish breakout setups.
• Crude Oil Geopolitics: Fundamental developments, particularly war and geopolitical escalation, could cause sudden upside price shocks that override technical structures.