Takeaway

The presenter argues that agricultural markets are pulling back, led lower by soybeans following disappointment that the China-US trade agreement failed to remove a 10% tariff on private buyers. While soybeans face further downside risk, corn is demonstrating greater relative strength, with the presenter highlighting significant pent-up demand and buy zones on pullbacks ahead of potential harvest delays in October.

What the presenter said

• Soybeans drove market weakness due to trade agreement disappointment over unlifted tariffs, despite China agreeing to purchase the same volume of US soybeans for two more years alongside $17 billion in other ag products [00:25, 01:04].
• The negative reaction stemmed from China keeping its 10% tariff for private companies and an overall lack of agreement specifics [01:12].
• Initial soybean support sits between $12.80 and $12.90, with a break opening a path to $12.50 on the November contract [02:58].
• Early soybean yields in the Eastern Corn Belt have come in decent [03:34].
• Corn tracked soybeans lower but is proving more resilient, with initial support at $5.15 and a chart gap lower down from $4.90 to $4.85 [03:43, 05:48].
• The presenter views the $5.00–$5.05 area as a key buy zone for corn due to massive underlying pent-up buying interest [06:15].
• Harvest-related selling pressure may be lighter than usual because producers have pre-sold more of this year's corn and beans relative to the past 4–5 years [06:36].
• Wet weather and harvest delays across the Central Plains and Western Corn Belt could emerge as strong supportive catalysts for corn and beans in the first half of October [07:30].
• Cattle markets faced macro risk-off pressure and quarter-end flows but held up relatively well [09:44].
• ICE raids disrupted slaughter, slowing the kill to 484,000 head last week (a record low for a non-holiday week) [10:28].
• Hog futures are oversold with near-record managed money short positions, trading out of sync with typical Q3/Q4 seasonal patterns [11:34].

Trade ideas

None stated. The presenter outlined key technical support zones and potential buy zones in corn rather than formal trade setups.

Levels and data cited

Price Levels: - Soybeans: Support at $12.80–$12.90; target at $12.50 (November contract) if support breaks. - Corn: Initial support at $5.15; previous support broken at $5.25–$5.26; buy zone identified at $5.00–$5.05; unfilled chart gap at $4.85–$4.90.

Data Cited: - USDA: Old Crop Carryout cited at 1.9 billion bushels for corn and 325 million bushels for beans; daily Flash Sales Reports, Q3 Quarterly Stocks, and Hogs and Pigs Report referenced. - ICE: Last week's slaughter kill data cited at 484,000 head.

Risks and what would invalidate this

• Wet weather causing harvest delays across the Central Plains and Western Corn Belt.