Takeaway

The presenter argues that gold and silver remain under heavy pressure after breaking below key moving averages to reach seven-week lows, driven by a spike in oil prices, a 19-year high in 10-year Treasury yields (5.2%), and a firm US dollar. With markets pricing a 70% probability of an October Federal Reserve rate hike, upcoming Core PCE and nonfarm payrolls data could further cement hawkish policy expectations. The presenter expects precious metals to stay suppressed until the Fed closes the door on further tightening, oil prices weaken, and yields and the dollar turn lower.

What the presenter said

• [00:04] Gold and silver have dropped to seven-week lows.
• [00:09] Rising oil prices are stoking inflation fears and strengthening the rationale for the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates higher for longer.
• [00:18] Spot gold has dropped approximately 3% to $4,150/oz, matching levels last seen in early August.
• [00:25] Spot silver has declined roughly 4.7% to trade just above $61/oz, also revisiting early August levels.
• [00:33] Oil jumped nearly 3% at the start of the week as hopes for a Middle East ceasefire faded.
• [00:42] The surge in oil is lifting inflation expectations, pushing US Treasury yields and the US dollar higher.
• [00:49] The 10-year US Treasury yield is trading at 5.2%, marking a fresh 19-year high.
• [00:55] The US dollar is holding near a two-month high.
• [00:58] Elevated yields and a strong dollar increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion and make dollar-denominated metals more expensive for foreign buyers.
• [01:11] Markets are pricing roughly a 70% chance of another Fed rate hike in October, following a 25 bps increase in September.
• [01:21] Recent Fed commentary leaned hawkish, underscoring persistent inflation and the requirement for tighter policy to return to the 2% target.
• [01:31] Upcoming US releases—hotter expected Core PCE on Wednesday and a strong September nonfarm payrolls report on Friday—will serve as key catalysts.
• [02:05] Resilient jobs data and sticky inflation would reinforce October hike expectations, applying further downward pressure on gold and silver.
• [02:22] Downside pressure on metals is expected to persist until the Fed rules out further rate increases, yields and the dollar decline, and oil softens.
• [02:35] Gold has breached both its 50 and 200 EMA to test the $4,150 mark.
• [03:19] Silver remains in a descending channel dating back to February, trading below its midpoint as well as its 50 and 200 EMAs.

Trade ideas

• None stated. No actionable trade setup was put forward; the presenter maintains a bearish macro and technical outlook across precious metals.

Levels and data cited

Price Levels: - Gold: - Current level: "$4,150" (August low retest) - Support: "$4,100" (March low) - Support: "$3,940" (June low) - Resistance: "$4,330" (confluence of 50 and 200 EMA, and 23.6% Fibonacci retracement) - Upside Target: "$4,500" (comes into focus if price breaks above $4,330) - Silver: - Current level: "$61" (August low retest) - Downside Target: "$55" (2026 low) - Resistance: "$65.20" (200 EMA)

Macro Data & Pricing: - Fed October Rate Hike Probability: 70% - US 10-Year Treasury Yield: 5.2% (19-year high) - US Dollar: 2-month high - US Core PCE (Wednesday): Expected hotter - US Nonfarm Payrolls (Friday): Expected strong for September

Risks and what would invalidate this

• Continued Federal Reserve rate hikes
• Sustained strength in US Treasury yields
• Persistent strength in the US dollar
• Continued elevated oil prices
• Invalidation of the bearish outlook: The Federal Reserve closing the door on further rate hikes, falling Treasury yields, a declining US dollar, and weakening oil prices.