Takeaway

The presenter argues that several key technical inflection points are emerging across commodities, notably highlighting a bearish head-and-shoulders breakdown in Gold and upside continuation potential in Natural Gas toward higher Fibonacci targets. Meanwhile, Silver and Crude Oil remain range-bound, requiring confirmed breakout triggers before establishing directional exposure.

What the presenter said

• The previous week yielded minimal clear setups, underscoring that avoiding bad setups preserves capital when systematic conditions are absent [00:21, 00:50, 01:10, 01:26].
• Natural Gas (NG1!) rejected a key zone and executed an expected pullback that yielded a 1 ATR scalp; the presenter expects further upside with pullbacks targeting the 1.618 Fib extension [06:31, 07:35, 10:13].
• Gold (XAUUSD) has broken below the neckline of a daily bearish head-and-shoulders pattern, indicating follow-through toward next support [15:30, 15:55].
• Silver (XAGUSD) is ranging within a consolidation box; a break above the 50 EMA could trigger a rally toward $70–$71, while a break below current lows would risk a drop to distant support [18:06, 19:00].
• Crude Oil (CL1!) price action remains unfavorable and trapped in a defined range; the presenter is awaiting a confirmed breakout before participating [20:24, 20:47].

Trade ideas

• USDCHF

  • Direction: Long
  • Thesis: Bull flag breakout confirmed by a solid body candle close.
  • Entry: Break and solid body close above bull flag
  • Target: 1:1 risk-to-reward (achieved 1.2:1)
  • Stop: Just below 50 EMA
  • Horizon: Medium term
  • Conviction: High

• EURUSD

  • Direction: Short
  • Thesis: Bear flag breakdown supported by the 50 EMA.
  • Entry: Break below bear flag
  • Target: 1:1 risk-to-reward (achieved 1.2:1 to 1.3:1)
  • Stop: Implied above bear flag
  • Horizon: Medium term
  • Conviction: Medium

• Natural Gas (NG1!)

  • Direction: Long
  • Thesis: Bullish pullback entry following a price rejection.
  • Entry: At the pullback after rejection
  • Target: 1 ATR (72 points)
  • Stop: Not explicitly stated for scalp (generally below 50 EMA for longer term)
  • Horizon: Medium term
  • Conviction: Medium

• Gold (XAUUSD)

  • Direction: Short
  • Thesis: Bearish engulfing pullback entry following a daily head-and-shoulders neckline break.
  • Entry: At the pullback after bearish engulfing
  • Target: 1 ATR (32 dollars)
  • Stop: Implied above the bearish engulfing candle
  • Horizon: Medium term
  • Conviction: Medium

Levels and data cited

• Natural Gas (NG1!): "3.5 cents" cited as a long-term target at the 1.618 Fib level.
• Silver (XAGUSD): "$70 dollars to 71 dollars" cited as resistance/target on a breakout above the 50 EMA.

Risks and what would invalidate this

• Technical zones are not 100% reliable, making predefined stop losses critical.
• For Gold, a 4-hour close below the current consolidation box and lows invalidates upside and warrants exiting long positions.
• For Silver, a break below current lows invalidates any prevailing bullish momentum.