Takeaway

The presenter argues that Natural Gas has established strong upward momentum that is likely to clear immediate overhead resistance, favoring long positions on pullbacks to key moving averages. In contrast, Gold, Silver, and Crude Oil are testing pivotal inflection levels, where directional commitments depend entirely on immediate 4-hour candle closes and engulfing confirmation signals.

What the presenter said

• Natural Gas: The commodity previously hit 50% and 38.2% Fibonacci retracements and is expected to push toward the 78.6%, 1.0, and 1.618 Fib extensions, testing major resistance between 3.3343 and 3.3985 [00:45, 01:08].
• Natural Gas: The speaker views the probability of price holding at current resistance as low due to strong momentum, projecting upper resistance targets at $4.30–$4.50 (Capital.com), $4.30–$4.60 (NYMEX), and $4.90–$5.00 (OANDA) [04:10, 04:30].
• Natural Gas: Preferred entry strategy is to buy pullbacks to the 20 EMA or 50 EMA upon the appearance of a bullish engulfing candle [05:35].
• Natural Gas (MCX): The Fibonacci long setup triggered and hit its 1.618 target, with subsequent resistance identified at 315.6 to 323.6 [07:53].
• Gold: The market is bound in a consolidation box; a breakdown signals lower prices, while holding support with a bullish engulfing candle targets the 50 EMA or the box top [08:40].
• Silver: Price is at support; a bullish engulfing candle would indicate a bounce toward the 50 EMA, whereas failing to print a bullish candle and breaking the recent low signals downward continuation [09:48].
• Crude Oil: Price is testing above the 50 EMA; a 4-hour candle close above the average triggers long setups, whereas a bearish engulfing rejection targets a 1 ATR move lower [10:21, 10:53].

Trade ideas

• Natural Gas (Long)

  • Entry: Pullback to the 20 EMA or 50 EMA confirmed by a bullish engulfing candle
  • Target: 78.6%, 1.0, and 1.618 Fib levels / next major resistance ($4.30–$5.00 depending on platform)
  • Stop: Below the engulfing candle or previous swing low
  • Horizon: Short-term
  • Conviction: High

• Gold (Long)

  • Entry: Formation of a solid bullish engulfing candle at consolidation support
  • Target: 50 EMA or upper boundary of the consolidation box
  • Stop: Below the consolidation zone
  • Horizon: Short-term
  • Conviction: Medium

• Gold (Short)

  • Entry: Breakdown below the consolidation box, followed by a retest and bearish engulfing candle
  • Target: Lower support levels
  • Stop: Above the retest level
  • Horizon: Short-term
  • Conviction: Medium

• Silver (Long)

  • Entry: Formation of a solid bullish engulfing candle at current support
  • Target: 50 EMA or next resistance box
  • Stop: Below support level
  • Horizon: Short-term
  • Conviction: Medium

• Silver (Short)

  • Entry: Breakdown below the current swing low without a bullish engulfing pattern
  • Target: Lower support levels
  • Stop: Above the breakout level
  • Horizon: Short-term
  • Conviction: Medium

• Crude Oil (Long)

  • Entry: 4-hour candle close confirmed above the 50 EMA
  • Target: Initial target of 1 ATR, trailing toward previous highs
  • Stop: Below the 50 EMA or prior swing low
  • Horizon: Short-term
  • Conviction: Medium

• Crude Oil (Short)

  • Entry: Formation of a bearish engulfing candle after pushing above the 50 EMA
  • Target: Initial target of 1 ATR, trailing toward previous lows
  • Stop: Above the bearish engulfing candle
  • Horizon: Short-term
  • Conviction: Medium

Levels and data cited

• Natural Gas: 3.3343, 3.3985 (next major resistance)
• Natural Gas (Capital.com): 3.334, 3.453 (adjusted resistance); 4.30, 4.50 (overhead resistance)
• Natural Gas (NYMEX): 4.30, 4.60 (overhead resistance)
• Natural Gas (OANDA): 4.90, 5.00 (overhead resistance)
• Natural Gas (MCX): 315.6, 323.6 (next resistance)

Risks and what would invalidate this

• Aggressive Fibonacci pullback entries carry elevated failure risk.
• Volatility-induced wide spreads may degrade entry execution and risk-reward parameters.
• Fakeout breaks around key EMA levels and consolidation boxes generating false directional signals.