Takeaway

The presenter sees immediate, high-conviction long opportunities in Natural Gas and Silver following bullish price action. He argues that Natural Gas has confirmed a swing low with an engulfing candle, while Silver has formed a solid double bottom. The view on Gold and Crude Oil is more cautious, awaiting further 4-hour candle confirmation before entering long positions.

What the presenter said

• Natural Gas has formed a swing low engulfing candle, signaling a potential move higher. [00:24]
• The 1 ATR target for Natural Gas at 3.06 on NYMEX was technically hit. [01:04]
• Gold has broken above the 50 EMA, but the presenter is waiting for another 4-hour green candle close to confirm the move. [04:25]
• Silver has shown solid momentum, bouncing from a key zone to form a double bottom and pushing up to the 50 EMA. [05:28]
• Crude Oil has pulled back from a key zone, and a long entry would require the next 4-hour candle to close as a bullish engulfing candle. [07:15]

Trade ideas

• Instrument: Natural Gas (NG1! / NATGAS / MCX)
  • Direction: Long
  • Thesis: The presenter notes a swing low engulfing candle has formed, meeting rules for a pullback entry.
  • Entry: At the pullback, or the close of the engulfing candle.
  • Stop: Just below the swing low (e.g., below 2.859 on NYMEX).
  • Target: Initial target is 1 ATR (e.g., 3.06 on NYMEX). A secondary target is the zone around 3.080 on NYMEX.
  • Conviction: High
• Instrument: Silver (XAGUSD)
  • Direction: Long
  • Thesis: The presenter sees a bounce from a key zone, a minor double bottom, and a strong push to the 50 EMA as bullish signs.
  • Entry: On a pullback (4-hour or 1-hour chart) after a bullish engulfing candle forms.
  • Conviction: High
• Instrument: Gold (XAUUSD)
  • Direction: Long
  • Thesis: A potential long, but requires more confirmation as the price has just broken above the 50 EMA.
  • Entry: After another green 4-hour candle closes above the 50 EMA, or on a confirmed bullish pullback.
  • Conviction: Medium
• Instrument: Crude Oil (CL1! / USOIL / WTICOUSD)
  • Direction: Long
  • Thesis: The market has reacted from a key zone and pulled back. A bullish engulfing candle is needed to confirm upside.
  • Entry: After a bullish engulfing 4-hour candle closes above the 50 EMA.
  • Target: Initial target 1 ATR up, then a move toward previous highs.
  • Conviction: Medium

Levels and data cited

• Natural Gas (NG1!):
  • Stop: 2.859
  • Target 1: 3.06
  • Target 2: 3.080
• Natural Gas (NATGAS - Capital.com):
  • Target: 3.035

Risks and what would invalidate this

• Natural Gas: The long thesis would be invalidated if the price breaks below the previous lows.
• Gold: The bearish trend remains intact if the current 4-hour candle closes back below the 50 EMA.
• Crude Oil: The long setup is invalid if no bullish engulfing candle forms and the price closes below the 50 EMA, which would target the next support level lower.
• Silver: The presenter notes that "dramatic news" could impact the bullish trend.