Takeaway

The presenter argues that gold is at a critical inflection point, holding multi-month trend support at 4230 ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision. With a rate hike almost fully priced in, the presenter believes the updated dot plot and economic projections will be the primary driver, determining whether gold breaks down towards 4165 or rallies to test key resistance at 4506-4533.

What the presenter said

• For the third consecutive week, gold is pinned to its objective yearly open of 4319, with daily closes below but no weekly close beneath this level. [00:22]
• The metal has declined nearly 9.4% from its August high. [00:47]
• The critical support zone to maintain the uptrend is 4230, which converges with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the advance from the June lows. [01:18]
• A breach below 4230 would invalidate the multi-month uptrend and risk a move to 4165 and potentially towards 4096. [02:26]
• Key resistance is a cluster from 4506 to 4533, which includes Fibonacci levels and the 2025 objective high day close. The 200-day moving average is also in this zone. [01:35, 05:50]
• A breakout above near-term resistance at 4402 (Friday's high) would suggest a significant low is in place and open a test of the 4506-4533 key resistance. [02:13]
• Since the market is pricing a 93%-100% probability of a rate hike, the focus is on the dot plot and Summary of Economic Projections. [03:14]
• A hawkish outcome (25 bps hike, higher dots, higher inflation forecast) would likely be extremely bearish for gold. [04:17]
• A stagflationary signal from the Fed (weaker growth prospects alongside higher inflation) could be bullish for gold. [04:57]

Trade ideas

None stated. The presenter outlined potential market scenarios contingent on the Federal Reserve's dot plot and economic projections rather than putting forward a specific trade. The view is that a hawkish outcome would be bearish, while a stagflationary signal could be bullish, with the key invalidation and breakout levels being 4230 and 4402, respectively.

Levels and data cited

Price Levels (Gold): * Support: 4253 (weekly range low), 4230 (critical uptrend support), 4165 (July high day close). * Resistance: 4319 (yearly open), 4355 (weekly range high), 4402 (breakout level), 4447 (monthly open), 4506-4533 (key resistance cluster), 4539. * Bearish Target: 4096 (100% extension of decline from high).

Data Cited: * FOMC: Target Rate Probabilities for the 18 Sep 2026 meeting are 93%-100% for a rate hike. * Federal Reserve: June 2026 Summary of Economic Projections. * Federal Reserve: Dot Plot median forecast moved to 3.8% in June.

Risks and what would invalidate this

• A break below 4230 would invalidate the multi-month uptrend and suggest a larger trend reversal is underway.
• A rally failing near 4400 followed by a break below 4230 would signal a more bearish outlook in the weeks ahead.