Takeaway

The presenter is looking for potential short opportunities in Gold and Silver, waiting for bearish confirmation candles at the 50 EMA. Conversely, the view on Crude Oil remains bullish, with a plan to buy pullbacks. Natural Gas may be setting up for a long-term reversal based on a weekly double bottom, but it must first overcome key resistance around the $3.00 level.

What the presenter said

• Natural Gas shows a double bottom pattern on the weekly chart, suggesting a long-term reversal is likely, similar to a pattern seen in 2020. [00:36, 01:00]
• The 50 EMA on the weekly timeframe is a significant hurdle for Natural Gas that must be broken for the bullish move to continue. [00:49]
• On the daily chart, Natural Gas is struggling to break above the $3 level, and the 4-hour chart shows multiple rejections at this major resistance. [01:47, 01:55]
• The presenter is waiting for Natural Gas to make a new high and then pull back to the 50 EMA, looking for a bullish engulfing candle as a "comfortable long entry." [02:51]
• The bullish trend for Natural Gas is considered intact; the speaker is not looking to short unless the price breaks completely below the 50 EMA. [03:15]
• For Gold, the presenter is preparing for short opportunities and will take a trade if a rejection candle or bearish engulfing pattern forms at current levels. [05:25, 05:31]
• Similarly for Silver, the price is seeing rejection at the 50 EMA, and a bearish engulfing candle would signal a short trade. [06:23]
• The trend for Crude Oil is bullish, supported by fundamentals, making long trades on pullbacks the preferred strategy. [08:03]

Trade ideas

• Instrument: Natural Gas

  • Direction: Long
  • Entry: On a bullish engulfing candle following a pullback and rejection at the 50 EMA, ideally after a new high is made.
  • Target: None stated.
  • Stop: None stated.
  • Horizon: Unspecified
  • Conviction: High

• Instrument: Gold

  • Direction: Short
  • Entry: Upon the formation of a rejection candle or bearish engulfing candle.
  • Target: 39 (1 ATR)
  • Stop: 34 (1 ATR)
  • Horizon: Unspecified
  • Conviction: High

• Instrument: Silver

  • Direction: Short
  • Entry: Upon the formation of a bearish engulfing candle at the 50 EMA.
  • Target: None stated.
  • Stop: None stated.
  • Horizon: Unspecified
  • Conviction: High

• Instrument: Crude Oil

  • Direction: Long
  • Entry: On a bullish engulfing candle after a pullback above the 50 EMA.
  • Target: 1.7 ATR
  • Stop: None stated.
  • Horizon: Unspecified
  • Conviction: High

Levels and data cited

• Natural Gas: Resistance at $3.
• Crude Oil: Resistance zone at $106-$109.

Risks and what would invalidate this

• Natural Gas: A bearish engulfing candle or double top at current resistance could lead to a fall back to the trendline. A complete break below the 50 EMA would invalidate the long bias.
• Gold: If two candles close above the 50 EMA, the short trade idea would be invalidated.
• Silver: If two candles close above the 50 EMA, the short trade idea would be invalidated.