Takeaway

The presenter argues that despite a lower finish on report day, the market sentiment for corn remains bullish following the September WASDE. The key focus now is on December corn futures closing above the 540 level to confirm upside momentum. Traders should also watch for the quarterly Grain Stocks report at the end of the month and the influence of crude oil prices on the broader complex.

What the presenter said

• The September WASDE report contained no major shocks, with the corn yield adjustment lower being largely anticipated. [00:37]
• The US corn yield was revised down 2.2 bushels from August to 178.5 bushels per acre, a figure the market viewed as fair. [01:01]
• The soybean yield was adjusted slightly higher by 0.1 bushels to 52.8, still below Pro Farmer's 53.3 estimate but considered a strong number. [01:37]
• Futures markets were choppy on report day and finished lower, with pressure on soybeans coming from a significant managed money long position. [01:59]
• The presenter notes that the sentiment for corn remains bullish among traders. [02:50]
• A weekly close above 540 on December corn futures would be a strong signal for more upside. [03:00]
• Failure to close above 540 could see December corn fall back to fill a market gap at the 510 level. [03:10]
• The next major data release is the quarterly Grain Stocks report on September 30th, which will be key for assessing supply ahead of the main US harvest. [03:37]
• Crude oil prices, particularly if over $100 per barrel, are seen as a significant factor affecting the entire grain complex. [04:06]

Trade ideas

• None stated. The presenter's market view is that corn retains a bullish bias, contingent on December futures closing above 540. Soybeans are seen as potentially bearish if prices pull back from the $13 level, partly due to fund pressure.

Levels and data cited

• Corn (December futures): Resistance at 540. Support/gap fill at 510.
• Soybeans: Key level noted at $13.
• Crude Oil: Influential level at $100 per barrel.
• WASDE (Sep): Corn yield at 178.5 bu/acre; Soybean yield at 52.8 bu/acre.
• Pro Farmer: Soybean yield estimate at 53.3 bu/acre.
• USDA: Next key report is the quarterly Grain Stocks on September 30th.

Risks and what would invalidate this

• If December corn futures do not close above 540, the bullish outlook would be challenged, and prices could fall to the 510 level.
• A pullback in soybean prices from the $13 level could signal a bearish undertone for that market.