Takeaway

The presenter expects Natural Gas to continue its push higher but warns of a potential pullback from the 3.080 resistance area, which is being tested for a fourth time. The speaker is watching for specific candlestick patterns for entry on several commodities: a bullish pullback buy in Natural Gas and Crude Oil, a bearish pullback sell in Gold, and a rally-then-sell setup in Silver.

What the presenter said

• The presenter notes that most valid trading conditions tend to form after the US session opens. [00:25]
• Natural Gas (NYMEX) has seen a clear break of structure to the upside. The presenter believes that while resistance has held three times, a fourth test is likely to break through. [03:33, 07:14]
• A solid pullback in Natural Gas is likely if bearish engulfing patterns or double tops form at the current resistance level. Otherwise, a break higher is expected. [05:12]
• The presenter highlights the significant risk of a market gap over the weekend for Natural Gas. [04:50]
• For Gold (XAUUSD), the view is bearish. The presenter is looking for a pullback to a resistance area to initiate a short trade on a bearish engulfing pattern. [08:01]
• Silver (XAGUSD) is forming a double bottom, suggesting buying activity and an expected push higher, potentially towards the 50 EMA, where a short entry could be considered. [08:37]
• Crude Oil fundamentals remain bullish due to ongoing conflicts. The presenter expects a pullback before looking for a long entry based on a bullish engulfing candle. [09:29, 09:40]

Trade ideas

• Instrument: Natural Gas (NG1!)

  • Direction: Long
  • Entry: On a pullback, wait for a bullish engulfing candle above the 50 EMA.
  • Target: 3.080
  • Stop: None stated
  • Horizon: Unspecified
  • Conviction: Medium

• Instrument: Gold (XAUUSD)

  • Direction: Short
  • Entry: After a pullback, on a bearish engulfing pattern.
  • Target: None stated
  • Stop: None stated
  • Horizon: Unspecified
  • Conviction: Medium

• Instrument: Silver (XAGUSD)

  • Direction: Short
  • Entry: Following an expected push up, on a bearish engulfing pattern at the 50 EMA.
  • Target: None stated
  • Stop: None stated
  • Horizon: Unspecified
  • Conviction: Medium

• Instrument: Crude Oil (CL1!)

  • Direction: Long
  • Entry: After a pullback, on a bullish engulfing candle.
  • Target: None stated
  • Stop: None stated
  • Horizon: Unspecified
  • Conviction: Medium

• Instrument: Crude Oil (CL1!)

  • Direction: Short
  • Entry: Bearish engulfing pattern or double top at the 108.00 resistance level.
  • Target: None stated
  • Stop: None stated
  • Horizon: Unspecified
  • Conviction: Low

Levels and data cited

• Natural Gas: Resistance at 3.080 (Capital.com, NYMEX, OANDA) and 380.0 (MCX).
• Gold (XAUUSD): Support at 4,318.0.
• Silver (XAGUSD): Support at 63.800, Resistance at 65.000.
• Crude Oil (CL1!): Resistance at 108.00.

Risks and what would invalidate this

• The presenter warns that small details can invalidate a candle pattern or setup.
• For Natural Gas, a weekend gap is a possibility. A confirmed bearish pattern (engulfing, double top) at resistance would invalidate the immediate bullish case and signal a pullback.
• For Gold, the presenter is not interested in buying unless the price breaks above the 50 EMA.
• For Crude Oil, a double top pattern is only considered significant if it forms at a resistance level.