Takeaway

The presenter flags a bullish change of structure in Natural Gas, expecting a continued move higher after a 50/20 EMA cross. In contrast, Gold's break of a head and shoulders neckline is seen as an alarming bearish signal, with Silver likely to follow if it breaks its key $62.60 support level.

What the presenter said

• The presenter notes that Natural Gas had a predicted gap-up opening which played out, and the high time frame view remains bullish for the next couple of weeks. [00:25, 00:49]
• A change of structure has occurred in Natural Gas, breaking above previous highs to indicate an upward trend. [01:08]
• A bullish cross of the 50 EMA over the 20 EMA further supports the bullish bias for Natural Gas. [02:23]
• Gold has broken below the neckline of a head and shoulder pattern, which the presenter views as alarming and suggestive of a "solid push down or fall." [05:10]
• The bearish Gold outlook is reinforced by the price trading below the 50 EMA on both daily and 4-hour timeframes. [05:52]
• Silver is showing similar bearish signs to Gold; a break and close below $62.60 is required for a further push down. [06:33]
• In Crude Oil, a previous bullish pullback entry played out successfully, and the presenter expects the price to continue pushing up given the geopolitical situation. [07:25, 08:30]

Trade ideas

• Instrument: Natural Gas

  • Direction: Long
  • Thesis: Bullish trend continuation after a change of structure and a 50/20 EMA bullish cross.
  • Entry: On a pullback with an engulfing candle above the 50 EMA.
  • Horizon: Short-term
  • Conviction: High

• Instrument: Gold

  • Direction: Short
  • Thesis: A head and shoulders pattern has been triggered, with price below key moving averages indicating strong selling pressure.
  • Entry: On a pullback with confirmation candles (e.g., engulfers).
  • Horizon: Short-term
  • Conviction: High

• Instrument: Silver

  • Direction: Short
  • Thesis: Similar bearish setup to Gold.
  • Entry: On a pullback with bearish engulfing candles after a confirmed break and close below the $62.60 neckline.
  • Horizon: Short-term
  • Conviction: Medium

• Instrument: Light Crude Oil Futures (CL1!)

  • Direction: Long
  • Thesis: Continuation of the upward move following a successful bullish pullback.
  • Target: $106.31, then $109.77.
  • Horizon: Short-term
  • Conviction: High

• Instrument: Light Crude Oil Futures (CL1!)

  • Direction: Short
  • Thesis: A reversal is anticipated after price reaches resistance.
  • Entry: At the $109.77 resistance level, pending entry conditions.
  • Horizon: Medium-term
  • Conviction: Medium

Levels and data cited

• Natural Gas: $3.00 (psychological resistance)
• Silver: $62.60 (support neckline)
• Light Crude Oil Futures (CL1!): $106.31 (resistance), $109.77 (resistance/potential reversal point)

Risks and what would invalidate this

• The presenter warns that entering a trade at the close of a candle without further confirmation can be very risky.
• Pullback entries in Natural Gas could be risky if not confirmed.