Takeaway

The presenter argues that WTI crude is at a critical technical juncture, with the former seven-month resistance at the $88 mark now acting as the key support level. This level now divides a potential price escalation scenario from a de-escalation scenario. The ongoing absence of a US-Iran deal is keeping a security premium in the market, supporting prices.

What the presenter said

• The absence of a US-Iran peace deal is keeping WTI, Brent, and the XLE ETF in bullish territories and capping broader market risk appetite. [00:08]
• WTI has broken out above a declining 7-month resistance line, turning the former ceiling at the $88 mark into major support. [00:46, 00:56]
• For WTI, a sustainable hold below $88 would confirm a broader de-escalation scenario. [02:18]
• Conversely, a WTI close above $103 could target upside resistance levels at $107.70-$108, $113, and the yearly highs of $118-$119. [02:35]
• Brent crude has pulled back from a major confluence zone, including its own 7-month trend line and the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of its March-July 2026 decline. [03:51]
• A sustainable hold for Brent above the trend line at $108 could lead to a short-term rally targeting yearly highs near $118-$119. [04:24]
• The XLE energy sector ETF is showing bearish divergence on the daily chart, suggesting pullback risk, but it continues to hold above an 18-year resistance-turned-support line on the monthly chart. [06:30, 06:49]
• A breakdown for XLE below the $63-$61 zone would confirm a de-escalation narrative and could see prices realign with the $54-$52 zone. [07:29]

Trade ideas

None stated. The presenter outlined bullish and bearish scenarios based on key technical levels rather than putting forward a specific trade.

Levels and data cited

WTI Crude * Support: $97.40-$96.50 (Fibonacci zone), $88.40-$88 (Golden 61.8% Fib), $88 (Major support). * Resistance: $94 (July 2026 high), $103, $107.70-$108, $113, $118-$119 (Yearly highs).

Brent Crude * Support: $102.30-$101.50 (Fibonacci zone), $93 (Breakdown level). * Resistance: $108 (Breakout level), $119 (Longer-term escalation level). * Target: $118-$119 (Yearly highs).

Other Oil Levels * UK Oil: Long-term de-escalation below $84. * US Oil: Long-term de-escalation below $79.

XLE Energy Sector ETF * Support: $63-$61 (Breakdown zone), $54-$52. * Resistance: $66. * Target: $70 (Psychological mark).

Risks and what would invalidate this

• The presenter notes overbought momentum risks for WTI, Brent, and XLE.
• A de-escalation scenario would be confirmed if key support levels are breached.
• Broader inflationary pressures were also mentioned as a risk factor.