Takeaway

The presenter's analysis of the September WASDE report is bullish for corn, with yields cut as expected and the stocks-to-use ratio dropping below a critical 10% level. For soybeans, a surprise yield increase was offset by stronger export demand, mainly from China, leading to a net reduction in ending stocks. The key takeaway is that the corn balance sheet is now decidedly tight, with the market looking for potential further yield cuts in subsequent reports.

What the presenter said

• The September WASDE report confirmed lower corn yields, which was in line with market expectations and had been largely priced in. [00:12, 00:17]
• The corn stocks-to-use ratio fell below 10%, a bullish indicator, and the presenter suggests it could tighten further if future reports show more yield cuts. [00:20]
• The USDA cut the corn yield by 2.2 bushels per acre from the August estimate, bringing it down to 178.5 bushels per acre. [00:39]
• As a result, corn production was lowered by 213 million bushels to 15.80 billion bushels, and U.S. ending stocks fell to 1.567 billion bushels. [01:33, 01:45]
• In a surprise, the USDA raised soybean yields by 0.1 bushels per acre to 52.8, against trade expectations for a small cut. [02:09]
• Despite the higher yield, soybean ending stocks fell by 10 million bushels to 310 million. [02:40]
• This was driven by a 25 million bushel increase in the export forecast, which the speaker attributes to "very aggressive" buying from China. [02:40, 02:59]

Trade ideas

• None stated. The presenter did not put forward an actionable trade idea but summarised the market view as bullish for corn due to the tightening balance sheet, while the soybean outlook is more mixed as strong export demand offsets a surprise yield increase.

Levels and data cited

• 2026 U.S. Corn Yield (Sep): 178.5 bushels per acre (down from 180.7 in Aug)
• 2026 U.S. Corn Production (Sep): 15.80 billion bushels (down from 16.013 billion in Aug)
• 2026 U.S. Corn Ending Stocks (Sep): 1.567 billion bushels (down from 1.653 billion in Aug)
• 2026 U.S. Corn Stocks-to-Use Ratio (Sep): Below 10%
• 2026 U.S. Soybean Yield (Sep): 52.8 bushels per acre (up from 52.7 in Aug)
• 2026 U.S. Soybean Production (Sep): 4.535 billion bushels (up from 4.519 billion in Aug)
• 2026 U.S. Soybean Exports (Sep): Raised by 25 million bushels
• 2026 U.S. Soybean Ending Stocks (Sep): 310 million bushels (down from 320 million in Aug)

Risks and what would invalidate this

• The presenter notes a risk that future corn yield cuts could further tighten the stocks-to-use ratio.