Takeaway

The presenter outlines a near-term bearish setup in Natural Gas following a trend line break, though the long-term view remains bullish on winter demand. He also identifies a potential short trade in Gold based on a developing head and shoulders pattern. For Crude Oil, the technical view is bullish with targets at 101 and 103, but this is highly conditional on geopolitical factors.

What the presenter said

• Natural Gas has broken its trend line and is expected to retest before potentially pushing down to the major weekly trend line. [19:47]
• On a higher timeframe, the presenter sees solid bullish pressure in Natural Gas, arguing buyers are fighting back, which suggests a gradual move higher long-term due to winter demand. [21:26]
• Gold is struggling within a range, but the speaker warns that a close below a key zone could trigger a head and shoulders pattern, leading to a further fall. [27:19]
• Silver bounced from a double bottom but is now in a range; a break below a key low could trigger more selling. [27:29]
• In Crude Oil, the presenter notes a valid pullback entry has occurred and expects price to move up to 101 and then 103, assuming fundamentals remain supportive. [28:47]

Trade ideas

• Instrument: Henry Hub natural gas futures (NG)

  • Direction: Short
  • Thesis: The presenter expects a price retest of the 50 EMA, followed by a bearish engulfing pattern, leading to a push down to the major weekly trend line.
  • Entry: A bearish engulfing candle below the 50 EMA.
  • Target: The major weekly trend line.
  • Horizon: Short-term
  • Conviction: Medium

• Instrument: Henry Hub natural gas futures (NG)

  • Direction: Long
  • Thesis: The speaker's long-term view is that approaching winter will increase demand and push prices up.
  • Entry: A valid buy condition at the trend line, a support level, or above the 50 EMA.
  • Target: Not stated.
  • Horizon: Long-term
  • Conviction: Medium

• Instrument: Gold Spot (XAUUSD)

  • Direction: Short
  • Thesis: A head and shoulders pattern will trigger if price closes below the key zone, leading to a fall towards support levels.
  • Entry: An aggressive entry would be a break below the low; a less aggressive entry would be a break, retest, and then a bearish engulfing candle.
  • Target: Unspecified support levels.
  • Horizon: Medium-term
  • Conviction: Medium

• Instrument: Silver (XAGUSD)

  • Direction: Short
  • Thesis: A pattern will trigger if the price breaks below the low, leading to a further fall.
  • Entry: A break below the low.
  • Target/Stop/Horizon: Not stated.
  • Conviction: Medium

• Instrument: Silver (XAGUSD)

  • Direction: Long
  • Thesis: Price needs to trade above the 50 EMA and above the high to signal a long.
  • Entry: Price trading above the 50 EMA and the high.
  • Target/Stop/Horizon: Not stated.
  • Conviction: Medium

• Instrument: WTI Crude Oil (WTI/USOIL)

  • Direction: Long
  • Thesis: Technical conditions from a valid pullback entry suggest upward movement, reinforced by fundamentals.
  • Entry: A valid pullback entry (which the speaker notes was already sent to members).
  • Target: 101, then 103.
  • Horizon: Unspecified
  • Conviction: High

Levels and data cited

• WTI Crude Oil: Targets at 101, 103.
• Coffee: Targets at 299.22, 256.38.
• AUDUSD: Resistance at 0.72900; Target at 0.71880.
• AUDJPY: Targets at 114.918, 110.880.
• EURGBP: Targets at 0.86080, 0.85741.
• USDCNH: Targets at 6.70814, 6.72780.
• EURNZD: Targets at 1.89631, 1.90780.
• AUDCAD: Targets at 0.99541, 0.98840.
• USDJPY: Targets at 158.551, 157.317.
• GBPZND: Targets at 2.00000, 2.02880.
• EURJPY: Targets at 178.541, 177.080.
• EURUSD: Target at 1.18145; Stop at 1.18783.

Risks and what would invalidate this

• The presenter states that the bullish technical case for Crude Oil would be invalidated if Donald Trump announces a cooling of geopolitical tensions. He argues that in that scenario, the price will "dramatically fall" as crude oil runs heavily on fundamentals.