Takeaway

The presenter argues that turbulence in crude oil is creating opportunities across the commodity complex, specifically in undervalued sectors. He believes the meat sector is poised for a significant move higher, noting that Live Cattle and Lean Hogs have lagged the recent rallies seen in grains, metals, and oil and are due to recalibrate.

What the presenter said

• The market has been turbulent due to the price of oil and friction in Iran, which the presenter believes creates "unbelievable opportunities." [00:33, 00:53]
• The speaker's thesis is that many commodities are currently "too cheap" and need to recalibrate to higher prices. [01:00]
• While grains, metals, oil, and soft commodities have already rallied, he has focused on the meat sector for the past couple of days. [01:04]
• He notes that Live Cattle prices have been consolidating at a low level for weeks and expects fundamentals to kick in, driving prices higher. [01:15]
• The underlying fundamental story for higher cattle prices is a long-term one that has been developing for decades. [01:25]

Trade ideas

• Instrument: Live Cattle (Beef)

  • Direction: Long
  • Thesis: The presenter believes the price has been sitting at a low level and supportive fundamentals are expected to drive it higher, as part of a broader recalibration of cheap commodities.
  • Entry/Target/Stop: Unspecified
  • Horizon: Unspecified
  • Conviction: High

• Instrument: Lean Hogs (Pork)

  • Direction: Long
  • Thesis: The presenter argues that pork is cheap and is expected to start catching up with other commodities that have already moved higher.
  • Entry/Target/Stop: Unspecified
  • Horizon: Unspecified
  • Conviction: High

Levels and data cited

• Live Cattle: The presenter identified 217825 as a support level where price has been sitting for a couple of weeks, expecting a move higher from there.