Takeaway

The presenter argues that the global diesel market is extremely tight following a Russian ban on diesel exports, which was a response to increased Ukrainian attacks on its refineries. This supply shock has pushed diesel prices to their highest level of 2026, creating a significant headwind for farmers beginning their harvest.

What the presenter said

• Diesel prices are climbing again. [00:00]
• Prices have surged in the last few weeks due to Ukraine's increased attacks on Russian oil refineries. [00:03]
• Russia is one of the largest producers of diesel, accounting for one in nine barrels on the global market. [00:12]
• Russia has banned diesel exports, making the global market extremely tight. [00:20]
• Diesel hit its highest price of 2026 this week at $5.70 a gallon and is on track to reach a new record high. [00:28]
• High diesel prices are causing issues for farmers fueling up for harvest. [00:36]
• Farm diesel increased 30 cents overnight on Tuesday. [00:39]
• A farmer in Texas reported his fuel bill went up by $23,000 in one month. [00:42]
• An Ohio farmer noted a potential $13,500 spike in his fuel costs for a single month. [00:47]

Trade ideas

• None stated. The presenter did not put forward an actionable trade idea, but highlighted the bullish fundamentals for diesel prices driven by the Russian export ban and tight global supply.

Levels and data cited

• Diesel Price: Hit $5.70 a gallon "this week," the highest price of 2026.
• Russian Global Production: Accounts for "one in nine barrels" of global diesel production.
• Farm Diesel Price: Increased by 30 cents "overnight on Tuesday."
• Farmer Fuel Costs (Texas): One farmer's bill increased by $23,000 in one month.
• Farmer Fuel Costs (Ohio): One farmer projected a $13,500 spike in fuel costs over one month.