Takeaway

The presenter is looking for short opportunities in Natural Gas and Gold, contingent on specific technical triggers like bearish engulfing candles or a break of recent lows. Conversely, the speaker has a high-conviction bullish view on Crude Oil, and is waiting for a pullback to the $92-$94 area to initiate long positions.

What the presenter said

• Natural Gas was pushed down from a swing high by a bearish engulfing candle. [00:24]
• The presenter notes that the $3.00 level is a strong psychological resistance for Natural Gas which failed to see a complete candle close above it. [00:29]
• A potential head and shoulders pattern is forming on the Natural Gas chart, which requires the formation of a right shoulder. [01:33]
• To validate the pattern, the speaker argues that price needs to push up from the current "termination zone" to form the right shoulder. [01:45]
• The head and shoulders idea would be invalidated if the 2.835 termination zone is broken with a candle close below it. [02:38]
• Below the 50 EMA, the speaker is only looking for short-term scalps to the short side. [02:51]
• To consider long positions in Natural Gas, the presenter states the price must trade above the previous high or at least the 50 EMA. [03:21]
• Silver's recent upward move is seen as a leading indicator that Gold may soon follow, as the speaker believes Silver moves faster than Gold. [07:07]
• The fundamental and technical outlook for Crude Oil is bullish. [09:23]

Trade ideas

• Instrument: Natural Gas
  • Direction: Short
  • Thesis: Price rallies to form the right shoulder of a head and shoulders pattern, then prints a bearish engulfing candle.
  • Entry: Upon bearish engulfing candle formation.
  • Target: 1 ATR.
  • Horizon: Intraday.
  • Conviction: Medium.
• Instrument: Natural Gas
  • Direction: Short
  • Thesis: Price pulls back to the 50 EMA, is rejected, and forms a bearish engulfing candle.
  • Entry: Upon bearish engulfing candle formation at the 50 EMA.
  • Target: 1 ATR.
  • Horizon: Intraday.
  • Conviction: Medium.
• Instrument: MCX Natural Gas
  • Direction: Short
  • Thesis: Price breaks and closes below the 270 zone, then pulls back to retest the level and forms a bearish engulfing candle.
  • Entry: Upon pullback and bearish engulfing candle after closing below 270.
  • Horizon: Unspecified.
  • Conviction: Medium.
• Instrument: Gold
  • Direction: Short
  • Thesis: Price breaks below the current low.
  • Entry: Upon break below the low.
  • Horizon: Unspecified.
  • Conviction: Medium.
• Instrument: Gold
  • Direction: Short
  • Thesis: Price pulls back and forms a bearish engulfing pattern below the 50 EMA.
  • Entry: Upon bearish engulfing pattern below 50 EMA.
  • Target: 1 ATR.
  • Horizon: Unspecified.
  • Conviction: Medium.
• Instrument: Silver
  • Direction: Long
  • Thesis: Price closes (body close, not wick) above recent highs, then pulls back to retest the breakout level.
  • Entry: Upon retest and formation of engulfing candles after the breakout.
  • Target: Next resistance level (71.14).
  • Horizon: Unspecified.
  • Conviction: Medium.
• Instrument: Crude Oil
  • Direction: Long
  • Thesis: Price pulls back to retest the $92-$94 support zone.
  • Entry: Upon a retest of the $92-$94 zone with an engulfing candle or a double bottom pattern.
  • Horizon: Short_term.
  • Conviction: High.

Levels and data cited

• Natural Gas:
  • Resistance: 3.00 (psychological)
  • Support: 2.835 (termination zone)
• MCX Natural Gas:
  • Breakout Level: 270
• Crude Oil:
  • Support: $92-$94 (retest/buy zone)
  • Resistance: $122-$129 (major structure/long-term target)

Risks and what would invalidate this

• For Natural Gas, the head and shoulders pattern becomes invalid if the 2.835 termination zone is broken with a candle close below it.
• The Natural Gas short thesis would also be invalidated if the price pushes up strongly enough to break above the high of the head and shoulders pattern.