Takeaway

The presenter's core view is that the corn market is caught between two starkly different yield estimates: the USDA's 180.7 bushels and the Pro Farmer tour's 173.2 bushels. This 7.5-bushel gap, the widest on record between the two, is causing futures to price in the lower Pro Farmer number, reflecting skepticism about the strength of the domestic crop ahead of next week's WASDE report.

What the presenter said

• The primary discrepancy in the market is the gap between the USDA and Pro Farmer corn yield estimates. [00:00]
• The USDA's August figure is 180.7 bushels per acre. [00:04]
• The Pro Farmer tour came in at 173.2 bushels per acre. [00:10]
• This creates a seven and a half bushel difference between the two reports. [00:14]
• Futures prices are primarily reacting to the lower Pro Farmer number, as this is the largest gap ever seen between the Pro Farmer tour and the August USDA report. [00:18]
• This has led the market to question if the domestic crop was ever as strong as initially expected. [00:35]
• The market's focus is expected to shift with the release of the USDA's WASDE report next week. [00:44]

Trade ideas

• None stated. The presenter summarised the market view that futures are currently trading based on the lower Pro Farmer yield estimate, anticipating the upcoming WASDE report for further direction.

Levels and data cited

• USDA August Corn Yield: 180.7 bushels
• Pro Farmer Corn Yield: 173.2 bushels