Takeaway

The presenter sees bearish pressure building across Natural Gas, Gold, Silver, and Crude Oil. For Natural Gas, the key takeaway is a failure at the psychological $3 resistance level, forming a double top and risking a sharper drop if a head and shoulders pattern confirms. For Crude Oil, RSI divergence and bearish candle patterns suggest a pullback is likely before any long opportunities arise.

What the presenter said

• Natural Gas is facing downward pressure after forming a double top with a swing high bearish candle at the key $3 resistance level. [00:22, 00:26, 00:37]
• The speaker warns a head and shoulders bearish pattern could form in Natural Gas if price closes below the current low and trend line, leading to a sharp drop. [01:24]
• On India's MCX, the presenter notes Natural Gas is forming a triple top, also indicating solid bearish pressure. [04:45]
• Gold has formed a bearish engulfing candle within a sideways range and will trigger a head and shoulders pattern if it closes below the neckline. [05:45, 06:08]
• Silver has failed to break a key dashed line and shows potential for a move lower. [06:40]
• Crude Oil is showing solid selling pressure via bearish patterns (shooting star, hanging man) and RSI divergence, making a pullback likely. [07:06]
• The presenter advises patience in trading Natural Gas, as clear conditions for long entries have not yet been met. [02:44]

Trade ideas

• Instrument: Natural Gas (XNGUSD)
  • Direction: Long
  • Thesis: A valid bullish pullback entry could occur if the next 4-hour candle is a bullish engulfing one and the price holds above the 50 EMA.
  • Entry: Implied on a bullish engulfing close above the 50 EMA.
  • Target: Recent highs (for quick profits).
  • Stop: Not specified.
  • Horizon: Short-term.
  • Conviction: Medium.
• Instrument: Natural Gas (XNGUSD)
  • Direction: Short
  • Thesis: Bears will take control if price breaks the current low and trend line, potentially confirming a head and shoulders pattern.
  • Entry: Implied on a break and close below the current low/trendline.
  • Target: Not specified.
  • Stop: Not specified.
  • Horizon: Short-term.
  • Conviction: Medium.
• Instrument: Natural Gas (MCX)
  • Direction: Short
  • Thesis: Following a triple top, a break of the 50 EMA would signal a push down to trend line support.
  • Entry: Implied on a break of the 50 EMA.
  • Target: Trend line support.
  • Stop: Not specified.
  • Horizon: Short-term.
  • Conviction: Medium.
• Instrument: Gold (XAUUSD)
  • Direction: Short
  • Thesis: A head and shoulders pattern will trigger on a close below the neckline, causing a move to the downside.
  • Entry: Implied on a close below the neckline.
  • Target: Lower levels.
  • Stop: Not specified.
  • Horizon: Short-term.
  • Conviction: Medium.
• Instrument: Silver (XAGUSD)
  • Direction: Short
  • Thesis: A further fall is expected if the price breaks below current lows.
  • Entry: Implied on a break below current lows.
  • Target: Not specified.
  • Stop: Not specified.
  • Horizon: Short-term.
  • Conviction: Medium.
• Instrument: Crude Oil (CL1!)
  • Direction: Long
  • Thesis: After an expected pullback, an engulfing candle above the 50 EMA would present a long opportunity.
  • Entry: Implied on an engulfing candle forming above the 50 EMA after a pullback.
  • Target: The recent high.
  • Stop: Not specified.
  • Horizon: Short-term.
  • Conviction: Medium.

Levels and data cited

• Natural Gas: $3.00 (psychological resistance).
• Natural Gas (NYMEX): $2.860, $2.835 (potential low targets).
• Crude Oil: $90.70 (break level).

Risks and what would invalidate this

• The potential head and shoulders pattern for Natural Gas is not yet confirmed and requires a break of support.
• The presenter noted that the bullish pullback entry condition for Natural Gas on OANDA is not currently valid.