Takeaway

The presenter maintains a bullish bias on Natural Gas and Crude Oil, looking for pullbacks as potential long entry opportunities. For Gold, the speaker highlights a potential head and shoulders pattern, noting that a break and close below 4282.82 would be a significant bearish trigger and a warning for buyers to exit.

What the presenter said

• Natural Gas is currently trending upwards, but a pullback is expected before another push higher. [00:37, 00:43]
• The speaker views the $3 level in Natural Gas as a critical resistance; a solid break above would likely spur bullish momentum. [01:16]
• On the weekly timeframe, the presenter sees a possible double bottom forming on the Natural Gas trendline, suggesting a potential continuation of the upward move. [01:26]
• Gold is described as ranging sideways, having rejected from the right shoulder of a potential head and shoulders pattern. [04:10]
• According to the speaker, if Gold breaks and closes below 4282.82, the head and shoulders pattern will be confirmed, potentially leading to a "massive push down." [04:38]
• Silver is currently ranging sideways just below its 50 EMA. [05:54]
• For Crude Oil, a break above $93 is considered "very important" for the next buy trade to occur. [07:05]
• The presenter argues that Crude Oil is not fundamentally bearish due to ongoing geopolitical conflicts. [07:19]

Trade ideas

• Instrument: Natural Gas

  • Direction: Long
  • Thesis: The presenter is looking for a continuation of the uptrend after a pullback. The weekly chart shows a possible double bottom.
  • Entry: After a solid break above the current high, followed by a pullback and an engulfing candle.
  • Conviction: Medium

• Instrument: Natural Gas

  • Direction: Short
  • Thesis: A short would only be considered on a significant breakdown of the current bullish structure.
  • Entry: Only if price first breaks below the 50 EMA and then below the previous lows.
  • Conviction: Low

• Instrument: Gold

  • Direction: Short
  • Thesis: A potential head and shoulders pattern is forming. A break below key support would confirm the pattern.
  • Entry: After a push down, pullback, and engulfing candle below 4282.82.
  • Conviction: Medium

• Instrument: Gold

  • Direction: Long
  • Thesis: A long would only be considered if the bearish pattern fails and price breaks to new highs. The daily trend is still technically up.
  • Entry: After a break above the current high, followed by a pullback and engulfing candle.
  • Conviction: Low

• Instrument: Silver

  • Direction: Long
  • Thesis: A long trade could be initiated if price breaks out of its current range to the upside.
  • Entry: If price breaks above the current high, forms a double bottom with a solid engulfing candle, or trades above the 50 EMA.
  • Conviction: Low

• Instrument: Silver

  • Direction: Short
  • Thesis: A short trade could be initiated if price breaks down from its current range.
  • Entry: If price breaks below the current low, followed by a pullback and bearish engulfing candle.
  • Conviction: Low

• Instrument: Crude Oil

  • Direction: Long
  • Thesis: The trend is bullish, supported by fundamentals. A break of resistance is needed to confirm the next leg up.
  • Entry: After a bullish engulfing candle above the 50 EMA, following a break above $93.
  • Conviction: Medium

• Instrument: Crude Oil

  • Direction: Short
  • Thesis: Technicals suggest a possible short-term pullback before the uptrend resumes.
  • Entry: After a bearish engulfing candle and a double top pattern forms.
  • Time Horizon: Short-term
  • Conviction: Low

Levels and data cited

• Natural Gas: $3.00 (resistance)
• Gold: 4336 (support), 4282 (support), 4282.82 (critical head and shoulders breakdown level)
• Crude Oil: $93.00 (resistance)

Risks and what would invalidate this

• The presenter states that if their specified entry conditions are not met, no trade should be taken.
• For Gold, a break below 4282.82 would serve as a warning for any buyers to exit their positions.