Takeaway

The presenter argues that both WTI crude oil and the Energy Select Sector ETF (XLE) are at a pivotal point, holding above former multi-year resistance levels that have now flipped to support. A sustained hold above current levels, driven by geopolitical supply risks, would signal significant further upside with specific targets cited. Conversely, a breakdown below these key supports, potentially triggered by a de-escalation between the US and Iran, would open the door for a sharp sell-off.

What the presenter said

• WTI crude oil and the XLE energy sector ETF are holding above multi-month and multi-year resistance levels. [00:04]
• The presenter views this as a signal of continuous upside risk for crude, contingent on geopolitical tensions surrounding the US, Iran, and the Strait of Hormuz. [00:13]
• XLE is attempting to confirm a breakout above a long-term uptrending resistance line from 2008, roughly above the 65.50 to 66.00 zone. [00:39]
• If XLE holds above 66.00, the presenter's upside targets are 70.50, then 75.40-75.50, and ultimately the 80.00 psychological mark. [01:11]
• For XLE, a drop below the 63.40 (March 2026 highs) and 61.40 levels would signal a drawdown scenario, targeting the 52.00 to 53.00 zone. [01:36]
• WTI is holding above its former declining resistance, now support, specifically above the 87.50 to 88.00 area. [02:38]
• A sustained hold above the 93.00-94.00 zone for WTI would extend bullish forecasts towards the 99.00 mark (61.8% Fib). [03:10]
• Continuation above 99.20 for WTI would target 108.00 and potentially new yearly highs. [03:22]
• On the downside for WTI, a break below 87.50 would target short-term supports at 86.00, 84.40-84.50, and the critical 79.00-80.00 zone. [03:41]
• A sustained hold below 66.50 for WTI would realign price action towards yearly lows, consistent with a resolution between the US and Iran. [04:52]

Trade ideas

No specific trade ideas were put forward. The presenter's market view is constructive on WTI and XLE as long as they hold above key former resistance levels (WTI 87.50-88.00, XLE 65.50-66.00). A failure to hold these levels would invalidate the bullish view and shift focus to downside targets.

Levels and data cited

XLE (Energy Select Sector ETF) * Resistance: 65.50-66.00 * Support: 63.40, 61.40, 52.00-53.00 * Upside Targets: 70.50, 75.40-75.50, 80.00

WTI Crude Oil * Support: 93.00-94.00, 87.50-88.00 (critical), 86.00, 84.40-84.50, 79.00-80.00 * Pivot: 99.20 * Upside Targets: 99.00, 108.00 * Downside Targets: 73.00, 66.50-68.00

Risks and what would invalidate this

• A firm and established resolution between the US and Iran, leading to a return of normal supply flows.
• Price action for WTI and XLE dropping back below their respective key support levels (former resistance).
• An extended geopolitical escalation and further supply disruption risks (this is a risk to the downside case).