Takeaway

The presenter is waiting for confirmation before entering new commodity trades. For Natural Gas, a sustained break above the $3.00 psychological level is required to initiate new longs. For Crude Oil, the market is range-bound, and a breakout is needed to determine the next direction, with a potential short-term target of $95 on a topside break.

What the presenter said

• Natural Gas (NYMEX) is in an uptrend but currently lacks a valid entry condition for a long trade. (18:43)
• A break above the $3.00 psychological level is required for further bullish continuation in Natural Gas. (20:11)
• The presenter expects Gold (XAUUSD) to remain bullish as long as it stays above 4282.82; a break below this "termination zone" could lead to a crash. (24:40)
• Silver (XAGUSD) could retest the 62.85-64.18 support level before bouncing. A break below this zone would trigger a significant sell-off. (25:57)
• Crude Oil (CL1!) is in a sideways range, and a breakout is needed to confirm the next directional move. (26:30)
• If Crude Oil remains above current levels, the presenter sees a potential short-term move up to $95. (27:25)

Trade ideas

• Instrument: Natural Gas (NYMEX)

  • Direction: Long
  • Thesis: The market is in an uptrend. Wait for a break above the $3.00 resistance, followed by a pullback and engulfing candles to confirm entry.
  • Entry: Upon break, pullback, and confirmation above $3.00
  • Target/Stop: Not specified
  • Horizon: Short-term
  • Conviction: Medium

• Instrument: Natural Gas (NYMEX)

  • Direction: Short
  • Thesis: If price forms a double top at the $3.00 resistance or a bearish head and shoulders pattern with a neckline break, a short trade could be considered.
  • Entry: Upon validation of a double top or head and shoulders pattern at $3.00
  • Target/Stop: Not specified
  • Horizon: Short-term
  • Conviction: Medium

• Instrument: Gold (XAUUSD)

  • Direction: Long
  • Thesis: The sentiment is bullish as long as the price remains above 4282.82. A buy opportunity would arise with a break above the previous high, followed by a pullback and confirming engulfing candles.
  • Entry: Upon break of previous high, pullback, and confirmation
  • Target/Stop: Not specified
  • Horizon: Short-term
  • Conviction: Medium

• Instrument: Gold (XAUUSD)

  • Direction: Short
  • Thesis: A break below the termination zone (around 4282.82) could lead to a significant crash, presenting a short opportunity.
  • Entry: Upon a break below the termination zone
  • Target/Stop: Not specified
  • Horizon: Short-term
  • Conviction: Medium

• Instrument: Silver (XAGUSD)

  • Direction: Long
  • Thesis: Look for a long opportunity on a retest of the 62.85-64.18 support zone, confirmed by a double bottom or a break above a previous high followed by a pullback.
  • Entry: Upon double bottom or confirmed breakout/pullback in the 62.85-64.18 zone
  • Target/Stop: Not specified
  • Horizon: Short-term
  • Conviction: Medium

• Instrument: Silver (XAGUSD)

  • Direction: Short
  • Thesis: A break below the termination zone around 62.85 would validate a bearish head and shoulders pattern and could trigger a massive downward move.
  • Entry: Upon a break below the termination zone
  • Target/Stop: Not specified
  • Horizon: Short-term
  • Conviction: Medium

• Instrument: Crude Oil (CL1!)

  • Direction: Long
  • Thesis: If price breaks and closes above the current range high (around $87), it could continue its upward trend.
  • Entry: Upon a break and close above the high, followed by a pullback and engulfing candle
  • Target: $95.00
  • Stop: Not specified
  • Horizon: Short-term
  • Conviction: Medium

• Instrument: Crude Oil (CL1!)

  • Direction: Short
  • Thesis: A short trade could be considered if price forms a double top at resistance (around $87) or breaks below the 50 EMA and a key support zone.
  • Entry: Upon double top formation or break below 50 EMA and support
  • Target/Stop: Not specified
  • Horizon: Short-term
  • Conviction: Medium

Levels and data cited

• Natural Gas (NYMEX): $3.00 (resistance), $2.80 (support)
• Gold (XAUUSD): 4,282.82 (support)
• Silver (XAGUSD): 62.85 - 64.18 (support)
• Crude Oil (CL1!): $95.00 (target), $87.00 (resistance), $80.00 (support)
• Platinum (XPTUSD): 1,770.000 (support)
• Bitcoin (BTCUSDT): 82,000 (target)
• CHFJPY: 186.580 (resistance), 180.000 (target)
• NZDJPY: 95.580 (resistance), 91.880 (target)
• AUDJPY: 115.000 (resistance), 112.881 (target)
• USDJPY: 158.580 (support), 159.000 (target)

Risks and what would invalidate this

• Aggressive entries on commodities can be very risky.
• Crude oil is heavily influenced by geopolitical situations, requiring attention to fundamentals.
• The presenter warns that Bitcoin patterns can be "traps" set by large players.
• A USDJPY long setup is considered risky because the daily timeframe is trading below the 50 and 20 EMA.