Takeaway

The presenter argues that despite a strong US jobs report pushing September Fed hike odds to 60%, the US dollar finished the week lower. This suggests the market is waiting for next week's US inflation data (PPI/CPI) as the definitive catalyst, making the Fed's next move a coin toss. In commodities, WTI crude has broken out but now faces significant resistance at the $93 level.

What the presenter said

• The August non-farm payroll report was much stronger than expected, showing 162,000 jobs created versus a forecast of 56,000. [00:12]
• Odds for a September Fed rate hike rose to 60% following the jobs data, recovering from a dip to 50% after dovish remarks from Fed Governor Waller. [00:28]
• The focus now shifts to next week's US inflation data (PPI on Thursday, CPI on Friday), which will be critical for the Fed's decision. A hot print would further increase rate hike expectations. [00:51]
• The ECB is 100% priced for a 25 basis point hike next week, but the EUR/USD is struggling to break higher and remains just above its 200-day EMA around 1.16. [02:24, 03:17]
• WTI crude is on track to rally ~8% for the week after breaking out of a symmetrical triangle, but it has stalled at resistance around the $93 level, a previous peak from July. This could signal a potential double-top reversal. [04:12, 04:22]
• The USDA's WASDE report on Friday will be the next major focus for corn and soybean markets. [05:08]

Trade ideas

None stated. The presenter did not put forward any actionable trade ideas, instead summarizing the market's focus on upcoming US inflation data to determine the Fed's path and the WASDE report for grains.

Levels and data cited

Price Levels: * USD/JPY: Support cited at the 155.30 level (July low). * EUR/USD: Currently trading just above the 200 EMA support at 1.1570. * WTI Crude Oil: Resistance at $93.00 (previous July peak). Immediate support is at $88.00 (50% Fib retracement), with key support at $80.00 (200 EMA and 61.8% Fib level).

Data Cited: * US Non-Farm Payrolls (Aug): 162,000 jobs created. * US Unemployment Rate (Aug): 4.1% (unchanged). * EIA Crude Inventories: -4.5 million barrel draw. * Market Pricing: 60% probability of a September Fed rate hike; 100% probability of a 25 bps ECB rate hike.

Risks and what would invalidate this

• Hotter-than-expected US inflation data could raise expectations for a September Fed rate hike.
• Elevated oil and energy prices could force the ECB to adopt a more hawkish stance.
• Geopolitical developments in the Middle East could add further upward pressure to oil prices.