Takeaway

The presenters argue that the 2026 corn and soybean crop potential, particularly in the Eastern Cornbelt, is significantly lower than previously expected due to a combination of extreme weather and widespread disease. The Pro Farmer Crop Tour revealed unexpected damage from excessive June rain, subsequent heat, crown rot, and tar spot. This bearish yield outlook is compounded by surging diesel and fertilizer prices, which are creating significant margin pressure and risk for the upcoming 2027 season.

What the presenter said

• Initial crop conditions appeared decent, but the Pro Farmer Crop Tour revealed significant, unexpected issues in the fields. [01:09]
• In Illinois, heavy June rains (14+ inches) followed by a heatwave caused severe crop stress, nitrogen loss, and poor kernel development. [01:09, 01:53]
• The combination of crown rot and tar spot is causing severe damage, with presenters citing potential yield losses of up to 100 bushels per acre. [02:18]
• Farmers in Michigan are now dealing with very dry conditions and heat that is "baking the crop." [04:18]
• Input costs are a major concern, with presenters noting that diesel prices are surging to near-record highs and fertilizer prices are also climbing rapidly. [04:31, 04:39]
• A potential sulfur shortage is looming, as soil levels have depleted dramatically over decades and current prices are at $1000/ton versus a typical $100-$300. This could impact phosphate production and lead to a "food crisis." [03:09, 03:49, 03:55]
• The speakers stressed that pre-harvest scouting is critical this year to identify fields with weak stalks or other issues that must be prioritized for harvest. [02:40]
• Looking ahead to 2027, the key lesson from this season is the need for proactive, data-driven management to react to challenges, especially regarding fertilizer costs and application. [04:05]

Trade ideas

• None stated. The speakers focused on the deteriorating crop conditions and rising input costs rather than providing specific trade recommendations.

Levels and data cited

• Diesel: Prices are surging and "right on the edge of hitting record highs." On-farm diesel jumped 30 to 50 cents in a day or two.
• Sulfur: Currently priced at $1000 a ton, compared to a typical range of $100-$300 a ton.
• Ammonia: Farmers are being quoted $950 a ton.
• Corn Moisture (Ken Ferrie): Some Illinois corn dropped from 24-25% moisture last week to 18% "yesterday."
• Soil Sulfate (Ken Ferrie): Levels in Central Illinois have fallen from 25-27 parts per million in 1983 to 4-6 ppm today.
• Sulfur Market (Ben Pratt, Mosaic): Global production is 45 million tons, while the global fertilizer market typically requires 75 million tons.
• Crop Conditions (Pro Farmer Crop Tour): Found unexpectedly poor conditions in some areas in 2026.

Risks and what would invalidate this

• Ongoing dry weather and heat "baking the crop" and reducing yield potential.
• Widespread disease, particularly crown rot and tar spot, causing significant yield loss.
• Weak stalks and down corn leading to harvestability issues and additional losses.
• A potential sulfur shortage impacting the availability of phosphate fertilizers.
• High and volatile diesel and fertilizer prices creating margin pressure and impacting profitability for the 2027 season.
• Farmers who cut back on fertilizer (N, S, P&K) seeing significant yield penalties after the heavy June rains.