Takeaway

The presenter notes that while technical indicators for October Natural Gas futures (NGV26) are turning bullish, the market lacks strong upside conviction ahead of today's storage report. A storage injection below +25 BCF would be seen as bullish, while the presenter also highlights that European gas storage is tracking below comfortable levels for winter, particularly in Great Britain and Germany.

What the presenter said

• Natural Gas October futures (NGV26) are trading around 2.988, up almost 1%. [00:13]
• Today's storage report is expected to show a +30 BCF injection; a bullish print would be below +25 BCF and a bearish one above +37 BCF. [00:20, 00:35]
• Technically, the presenter notes the October contract is above its 13 and 48-period exponential moving averages, which are close to a bullish crossover for the first time in months. [00:48, 01:14]
• Despite bullish technicals, the market appears unconvinced, with narrow bars on the daily chart. [01:07]
• The Oct vs Jan spread is down to 99 cents, with the RSI in oversold territory and a gap below the market at 92.7 cents. [01:47, 02:01]
• Heat in the central US is driving power demand, with over 50 million people under extreme heat risk and natural gas accounting for almost 47% of the ERCOT fuel mix. [02:50, 04:10]
• European gas storage is at 65.4% full, which the presenter believes is "not good news" as it projects to be below 77% by November 1st. [07:03]
• The presenter is particularly concerned about Great Britain's storage (31.3% full, over 12% below last year) and Germany's (53.3% full), suggesting they will be tight on supply this winter. [07:19, 07:55]
• In LNG news, an LNG tanker is loading at Golden Pass for the first time in weeks, which is described as "fantastic news." [09:52]

Trade ideas

The presenter put forward no actionable trade ideas. The market view is that while technicals are showing bullish signs, the price action reflects a lack of conviction ahead of the key EIA storage report.

Levels and data cited

Price Levels * Natural Gas October futures (NGV26): * Current Price: 2.988 * Daily Pivot: 2.956 * First Resistance: 3.002 * Second Resistance: 3.048 * Oct vs Jan Natural Gas Spread: * Current Price: 0.99 * Target (Gap): 0.927 * SPP Power Prices: Spiked to $254.00 this morning.

Data Cited * EIA Weekly Storage: Expectation +30 BCF (vs +50 BCF last year and +37 BCF 5-yr avg). * ERCOT: System-wide demand just over 83,000 MW, with natural gas providing over 30,000 MW (almost 47% of supply). * KYOS European Gas Analytics: * EU storage: 65.4% full * Great Britain storage: 31.3% full * Germany storage: 53.3% full * Panama Canal: Gatun Lake water level at 84.0 ft, with a low fresh water surcharge of 0.47%.

Risks and what would invalidate this

• A storage report coming in above the five-year average of +37 BCF could trigger bearish sentiment.
• The presenter notes the hurricane season in the Mid-Atlantic could impact energy markets.