Takeaway

The presenter argues that Natural Gas has staged a strong breakout above a flat flag pattern, signaling a potential move higher. He advises against chasing the move, preferring to wait for a pullback with an engulfing candle to enter long positions. Gold, Silver, and Crude Oil are at key junctures, with specific candle-close conditions required to trigger the next trade.

What the presenter said

• Natural Gas has experienced a strong breakout above the 50% area of a flat flag pattern. [00:33]
• The breakout in Natural Gas is a first condition met for considering long positions. [01:12]
• Aggressive entries for Natural Gas right at the breakout are considered risky, especially since the price has not completely broken above the $3.00 level. [01:38]
• The speaker personally prefers waiting for pullbacks with engulfing candles for long entries in Natural Gas. [01:48]
• Initial targets for Natural Gas long trades are 1 ATR. [02:00]
• Next resistance levels for Natural Gas are around $3.150 and $3.310 once the current zone is broken. [02:04]
• For Gold, if the next 4-hour candle closes below the 50 EMA, it would be a valid bearish pullback entry. [05:24]
• If Gold closes one more 4-hour candle above the current level, it's likely to continue moving up towards 4635.40. [05:40]
• For Silver, if the current candle is green and the next is a red engulfing candle, it's a sell signal. [07:09]
• If two 4-hour candles for Silver close above the 50 EMA, the speaker would no longer look for sell trades but only buy trades. [07:19]
• Crude Oil's previous risky pullback entry has played out, hitting its target. [07:51]
• For Crude Oil, the speaker prefers to see a solid double top inside the resistance zone with RSI divergence for an "A+" sell setup. [08:11]

Trade ideas

• Instrument: Natural Gas
  • Direction: Long
  • Entry: After a pullback and engulfing candle confirmation.
  • Target: 1 ATR initially, then $3.150, $3.310.
  • Stop: Unspecified.
  • Horizon: Short-term.
  • Conviction: Medium.
• Instrument: Gold
  • Direction: Short
  • Entry: After a 4-hour candle closes below the 50 EMA.
  • Target: 1 ATR.
  • Stop: Unspecified.
  • Horizon: Short-term.
  • Conviction: Medium.
• Instrument: Gold
  • Direction: Long
  • Entry: After a pullback and engulfing candle confirmation, if one more 4-hour candle closes above the current level.
  • Target: 4635.40.
  • Stop: Unspecified.
  • Horizon: Short-term.
  • Conviction: Medium.
• Instrument: Silver
  • Direction: Short
  • Entry: After a red engulfing candle follows the current green candle.
  • Target: Unspecified.
  • Stop: Unspecified.
  • Horizon: Short-term.
  • Conviction: Medium.
• Instrument: Silver
  • Direction: Long
  • Entry: After two 4-hour candles close above the 50 EMA.
  • Target: $72.190.
  • Stop: Unspecified.
  • Horizon: Short-term.
  • Conviction: Medium.
• Instrument: Crude Oil
  • Direction: Short
  • Entry: After a solid double top with divergence forms inside the resistance zone.
  • Target: Unspecified.
  • Stop: 1 ATR above the double top.
  • Horizon: Short-term.
  • Conviction: Medium.
• Instrument: Crude Oil
  • Direction: Long
  • Entry: After a pullback and engulfing candle confirmation.
  • Target: Unspecified.
  • Stop: Unspecified.
  • Horizon: Short-term.
  • Conviction: Medium.

Levels and data cited

• Natural Gas: $3.00 (resistance), $3.150 (target), $3.310 (target).
• Gold: 4635.40 (target).
• Silver: $80 (target), $72.190 (target).

Risks and what would invalidate this

• Aggressive entries on the Natural Gas breakout are considered risky.
• The presenter views a shallow pullback to the 50% Fib retracement for Natural Gas as risky.
• A pullback in Natural Gas could cause panic for aggressive traders who entered at the breakout.
• The current double top setup in Crude Oil is very weak as it is below the main resistance zone and lacks RSI divergence.