Takeaway

The presenter is watching key technical levels across the energy and metals complex, waiting for specific candlestick patterns to confirm entries. The overall bias is bullish for Natural Gas and Crude Oil long-term, but the speaker is looking for bearish engulfing candles or double tops at resistance for tactical short opportunities. For Gold and Silver, the view is short-term bearish below the 50 EMA, with entries sought on bearish pullbacks.

What the presenter said

• Natural Gas has reached a double top area, but the pattern is not yet considered valid without a confirming candlestick formation. [02:32]
• For Natural Gas, a sell signal would be a bearish engulfing candle, while a buy signal would be a bullish engulfing candle forming above the 50 EMA. [04:15]
• The presenter's general bias for Natural Gas remains bullish for the long run. [04:41]
• Gold pushed up from its support zone but remains above the 50 EMA on the daily chart; however, no clear entry conditions are present on lower timeframes. [06:51]
• The speaker expects a rejection for Gold in the current "termination zone," which could potentially form a head and shoulders pattern. [07:21]
• Short trades in Gold will be considered if a bearish engulfing candle forms after a bounce below the 50 EMA. [07:40]
• The strategy for Silver is similar to Gold: look for bearish pullback entries or a double bottom at support for a potential scalp. [08:18]
• Crude Oil has pushed down from resistance, but there is no immediate confirmation for direction. [09:03]
• The presenter maintains a bullish bias on Crude Oil until a solid bearish condition forms within the identified resistance zone. [09:57]

Trade ideas

• Instrument: Natural Gas (NG11)
  • Direction: Short
  • Thesis: Look for a valid double top confirmed by an engulfing candle, inverted hammer, or shooting star at the 2.980-3.000 resistance.
  • Horizon: Short-term
  • Conviction: Medium
• Instrument: Natural Gas (NG11)
  • Direction: Long
  • Thesis: Enter after a bullish engulfing candle forms above the 50 EMA, following a push to a new high.
  • Horizon: Short-term
  • Conviction: Medium
• Instrument: Gold (XAUUSD)
  • Direction: Short
  • Thesis: Enter after a short-term bounce fails and a bearish engulfing candle forms below the 50 EMA.
  • Horizon: Short-term
  • Conviction: Medium
• Instrument: Gold (XAUUSD)
  • Direction: Long
  • Thesis: Only consider a long if the price breaks and closes above the 50 EMA.
  • Horizon: Short-term
  • Conviction: Low
• Instrument: Silver (XAGUSD)
  • Direction: Short
  • Thesis: Enter after a bearish engulfing candle forms during a pullback.
  • Horizon: Short-term
  • Conviction: Medium
• Instrument: Silver (XAGUSD)
  • Direction: Long
  • Thesis: Look for a double bottom formation at support for a potential scalp trade.
  • Horizon: Intraday
  • Conviction: Low
• Instrument: Crude Oil (CL1!)
  • Direction: Short
  • Thesis: Enter after double tops or engulfing candles form at the resistance level.
  • Horizon: Short-term
  • Conviction: Medium
• Instrument: Crude Oil (CL1!)
  • Direction: Long
  • Thesis: A potential pullback entry if the current 4-hour candle closes as a bullish engulfing.
  • Horizon: Short-term
  • Conviction: Low

Levels and data cited

• Natural Gas (NG11) Resistance: 2.980-3.000
• Natural Gas (NG11) Support: 2.800-2.850
• Crude Oil (CL1!) Resistance: 90.00-90.50
• Crude Oil (CL1!) Support: 86.00-87.00

Risks and what would invalidate this

• For Crude Oil, the presenter states that buying is risky when the price is extended far above the 50 EMA.