Takeaway

The presenter argues that USD/CAD has rebounded into a critical pivot zone at 1.3941-1.3956, where multiple technical levels converge. The pair's direction for September hinges on this zone, with a breach above 1.3955 seen as a trigger for uptrend resumption ahead of major event risk from the Bank of Canada and U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls.

What the presenter said

• The US dollar is catching a bid as rising oil prices, fueled by the escalating situation in Iran, stoke inflation concerns. [00:12]
• USD/CAD has rebounded more than 1.5% from its monthly low, which was a test of a multi-year uptrend line. [00:25]
• The pair is now testing a major pivot zone between 1.3944 and 1.3956, which is defined by the 38.2% retracement of the yearly range and the April high-week close. [00:38]
• On the daily chart, the key pivot is identified as 1.3941-1.3955, an area of confluence including prior highs and lows. [02:04]
• The bullish invalidation level is the objective September monthly open around 1.3855 and the 200-day moving average at 1.3843. [03:00]
• A breach above 1.3955 would validate the recent low and suggest a resumption of the uptrend. [03:22]
• Upcoming event risk includes the Bank of Canada rate decision (expected to hold) and U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP). [03:47]
• The presenter notes that markets are pricing a 66% chance of a Fed rate move next month, but a weak NFP report could reduce the Fed's willingness to tighten aggressively. [04:20]

Trade ideas

• Instrument: USD/CAD
• Direction: Long
• Entry: On a breach above 1.3955
• Target: 1.3990-1.3991, then 1.4051
• Stop: Below 1.3843
• Horizon: Short-term
• Conviction: Medium

Levels and data cited

Price Levels (USD/CAD): * Pivot Zone: 1.3941 - 1.3956 * Support: 1.3775 - 1.3776 (61.8% retracement) * Bullish Invalidation / Stop: 1.3855 (Sept. monthly open) and 1.3843 (200-DMA) * Target 1: 1.3990 - 1.3991 (50% retracement / July low) * Target 2: 1.4051 (61.8% retracement)

Data Cited: * ADP Employment (Aug): 444k (expected) * BoC Interest Rate: 2.25% (expected to hold) * U.S. NFP (Aug): 58,000 (expected) * U.S. Unemployment (Aug): 4.1% (expected to hold) * Fed Rate Hike Probability (Sep): 66%

Risks and what would invalidate this

• A materially weaker-than-expected U.S. employment report could reduce the Federal Reserve's willingness to tighten policy aggressively.
• A price decline below the 1.3855-1.3843 support zone would invalidate the bullish outlook and threaten a resumption of the multi-month downtrend.