Takeaway

The presenter argues that grains and energy markets are in a strong upward trend, while the cattle market is struggling to find a bottom. New contract highs in corn and soybeans are being driven by poor August weather in the US North and West, ongoing Black Sea disruptions, and strong technical signals like the best monthly close since 2012. Crude oil breaking above $88 adds further support.

What the presenter said

• Grains are seeing new contract highs, with August's monthly gains being the best since July 2012. [00:22]
• The corn market gapped higher two Sundays ago above a long-term trend line and has yet to retest it. [00:49]
• The presenter believes it is difficult for corn prices to decline while crude oil and soybeans are "ripping higher." [01:20]
• August weather has been unfavorable for crop production in the northern and western parts of the US. [01:57]
• Higher soybean prices in Brazil are helping to keep US exports flowing. [02:15]
• The corn crop is being "shoved to the finish line," with Crop Progress data showing 62% dented versus 56% last year, which the presenter sees as a negative for crop quality. [06:37]
• Monthly closes for corn above five dollars on continuation charts suggest a multi-year trend of higher highs and higher lows. [07:09]
• Crude oil is back above $88, breaking past previous highs and indicating strong upward momentum in energy. [09:16]
• Diesel retailers are reportedly working with 2-3 day lead times as their tanks are low, with retail prices approaching $6. [09:46]
• For the cattle market to bottom, the presenter suggests a correction in corn prices and continued strength in hogs would be helpful. [10:27]

Trade ideas

The presenter did not put forward a specific trade idea.

The overall market view is bullish on grains (corn, soybeans) and energy (crude oil), citing strong technicals, weather concerns, and geopolitical factors. The view on the cattle market is bearish to neutral, as it is still searching for a bottom.

Levels and data cited

Price Levels: * Corn: Support at the $5.15 area; noted monthly closes above $5.08; has a longer-term projection of $6.80. * November Soybeans: Currently trading above $13.00, with first resistance at $13.30. * Soybean Oil: The presenter "wants to see it get back above 80." * Crude Oil: Has moved back above $88. * Diesel: Retail prices are approaching $6.00. * October Live Cattle: Support at the $2.09 old low; today's price noted at $2.11; potential target is $2.25-$2.28.

Data Cited: * Monthly closes: Grains had their best monthly gains in August since July 2012. * Crop Ratings: Soybean conditions saw a 2% drop. * USDA WASDE: The presenter noted the August estimate for corn production was trimmed to 175-176, down from previous thinking of 177-181. * Crop Progress Report: Corn is 62% dented vs 56% last year.

Risks and what would invalidate this

• A resolution of the Black Sea conflict could remove a bullish catalyst for the grain markets.
• Continued negative headlines could continue to weigh on the cattle market.