Takeaway

The presenter has a bullish bias on Natural Gas, citing a head and shoulder breakout and a rounded bottom formation on the daily chart. He believes a break of the $3.00 resistance level is likely and is looking for long entries on pullbacks. For Crude Oil, the view is also bullish following a breakout to a new high, with a strategy to buy on pullbacks.

What the presenter said

• Natural Gas has formed a bullish engulfing pattern at the neckline of a prior head and shoulder breakout, indicating strong buying pressure. [00:46]
• The presenter believes Natural Gas is likely to break the $3.00 level, a point of struggle for months, and continue its push up. [01:05]
• A rounded bottom is forming on the Natural Gas daily chart, which the speaker sees as a slow but strong bullish pattern suggesting a significant upward move is being prepared. [02:34]
• For Gold and Silver, the short-term view is bearish. The presenter is waiting for specific candlestick patterns at support levels, such as a double bottom or bullish engulfing, before considering a long for a bounce. [03:55, 04:06]
• Crude Oil has broken out to a new high. The speaker is looking for pullback entries to go long, targeting the next resistance level higher up. [05:31, 06:04]

Trade ideas

• Instrument: Natural Gas Futures (NG1!)

  • Direction: Short
  • Thesis: Enter short if price forms a double top with a bearish engulfing candle or a "382 bearish candle with the longest wick."
  • Conviction: Medium
  • Horizon: Short-term

• Instrument: Natural Gas Futures (NG1!)

  • Direction: Long
  • Thesis: A pullback entry where a red candle closes below the 50 EMA, followed by a second candle closing back above it.
  • Conviction: Low
  • Horizon: Short-term

• Instrument: Natural Gas Futures (MCX)

  • Direction: Short
  • Thesis: Enter short on the formation of a second top.
  • Conviction: Medium
  • Horizon: Short-term

• Instrument: Gold Spot (XAUUSD)

  • Direction: Long
  • Thesis: Enter on a bullish engulfing pattern that engulfs the prior candle's wick.
  • Entry: Bullish engulfing pattern
  • Target: 50 EMA
  • Stop: None stated
  • Conviction: Medium
  • Horizon: Intraday

• Instrument: Gold Spot (XAUUSD)

  • Direction: Short
  • Thesis: After a bounce to the 50 EMA, look for a bearish engulfing pattern to enter short.
  • Entry: Bearish engulfing pattern at 50 EMA
  • Target: None stated
  • Stop: None stated
  • Conviction: Medium
  • Horizon: Intraday

• Instrument: Silver (XAGUSD)

  • Direction: Short
  • Thesis: Look for bearish pullback entries, consistent with the short-term bearish view.
  • Conviction: Medium
  • Horizon: Short-term

• Instrument: Light Crude Oil Futures (CL1!)

  • Direction: Long
  • Thesis: After price made a new high, look for "pullback engulfers" to enter long.
  • Entry: Pullback engulfers
  • Target: None stated
  • Stop: None stated
  • Conviction: Medium
  • Horizon: Short-term

Levels and data cited

• Natural Gas: Resistance at $3.00. Key technical levels are the 20 EMA and 50 EMA.
• Gold Spot (XAUUSD): Resistance at the 50 EMA.
• Silver (XAGUSD): Support at the "current low".
• Light Crude Oil Futures (CL1!): Price has made a "new high".

Risks and what would invalidate this

• The speaker notes that many accounts are being blown up on Gold and that proper risk management is crucial.
• For Crude Oil, the analysis is subject to geopolitical risk, which can cause dramatic price moves that invalidate technical setups.