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Silver COT — Week of October 16, 2026

Silver (SI) COT Report: Week Ended October 16, 2026

Executive summary

The Commitments of Traders (COT) report for Silver (SI) futures for the week ended October 16, 2026, reflects a continuing retrenchment in speculative appetite as front-month prices tested multi-month lows. Total open interest rose by 3,303 contracts to 108,433, breaking a mild multi-week contraction. However, the compositional shift within open interest highlights mounting bearish conviction among hedge funds: Managed Money cut 655 long contracts while adding 1,254 short contracts, shrinking their net long position to 5,619 contracts—the narrowest net long posture observed since early April 2026.

Meanwhile, commercial market participants (Swap Dealers and Producer/Merchants) collectively covered short exposure, driven predominantly by Swap Dealers who covered 1,507 short contracts. The structural dynamic shows speculative interest deflating alongside front-month futures falling to $57.015/oz, having probed a low of $55.535/oz mid-week.

Positioning (net, extremes vs recent weeks)

Positioning across key reporting categories as of October 16, 2026:

  • Managed Money: Net long of 5,619 contracts (15,802 gross longs vs. 10,183 gross shorts), with an additional 8,362 spreading contracts. This marks the lowest net long exposure in over six months, down over 60% from the recent net peak of 14,386 contracts reached on September 11, 2026 (21,148 longs vs. 6,762 shorts).
  • Swap Dealers: Net short of 23,641 contracts (24,107 longs vs. 47,748 shorts). Swap dealer net short exposure has moderated slightly from -25,339 contracts the prior week (October 9, 2026) and remains well inside its 2026 extreme of -30,076 contracts recorded on January 16, 2026.
  • Producer/Merchant/Processor/User: Net short of 15,801 contracts (4,898 longs vs. 20,699 shorts). Commercial producer hedging remains range-bound, easing slightly from -16,253 net short on October 9.
  • Other Reportables: Net long of 17,012 contracts (18,592 longs vs. 1,580 shorts), expanding from +15,625 contracts on October 9.
  • Nonreportable (Retail/Small Traders): Net long of 16,811 contracts (26,468 longs vs. 9,657 shorts), retreating from +18,439 contracts on October 9.

Compared to positioning over the full historical sample provided (where Managed Money held a peak net long of 21,887 contracts on December 23, 2025), Managed Money net length is languishing in the bottom decile of its 10-month historical distribution.

Flows and week-over-week changes

Weekly positioning flows across categories (measured in contracts of 5,000 troy ounces):

  • Managed Money:
    • Longs: -655
    • Shorts: +1,254
    • Spreading: +650
    • Net Change: -1,909 contracts (outright bearish flow).
  • Swap Dealers:
    • Longs: +191
    • Shorts: -1,507
    • Spreading: +971
    • Net Change: +1,698 contracts (short covering).
  • Producer/Merchant:
    • Longs: +487
    • Shorts: +35
    • Spreading: N/A
    • Net Change: +452 contracts (mild net buying).
  • Other Reportables:
    • Longs: +1,401
    • Shorts: +14
    • Spreading: +696
    • Net Change: +1,387 contracts (long addition).
  • Nonreportable:
    • Longs: -438
    • Shorts: +1,190
    • Net Change: -1,628 contracts.

The combination of Managed Money shedding longs and adding gross shorts (+1,254 contracts) drove gross Managed Money shorts above the 10,000-contract threshold (10,183 contracts) for the first time since February 6, 2026 (when shorts stood at 8,206 contracts) and January 5, 2026 (15,092 contracts).

Commercials vs speculators

The structural tension between commercial hedgers and speculative accounts continues to adjust as spot prices trend lower:

Category                     Gross Long    Gross Short      Net Position    WoW Net Shift
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Producer/Merchant                 4,898         20,699           -15,801             +452
Swap Dealers                     24,107         47,748           -23,641           +1,698
Total Commercial                 29,005         68,447           -39,442           +2,150

Managed Money                    15,802         10,183            +5,619           -1,909
Other Reportables                18,592          1,580           +17,012           +1,387
Total Speculative / Other        34,394         11,763           +22,631             -522

Aggregate commercial net short positioning narrowed by 2,150 contracts from -41,592 to -39,442 contracts. In contrast to Managed Money, the Other Reportables cohort stepped in as aggressive buyers, absorbing 1,401 outright longs. Producer short positions remained virtually static (+35 contracts), indicating that mining hedgers saw little incentive to accelerate forward sales at prevailing price levels around the $57–$60 mark.

Open interest and participation

  • Total Open Interest: 108,433 contracts, up 3,303 contracts (+3.14%) from 105,130 contracts in the week of October 9, 2026. This is well below the peak open interest seen on January 5, 2026 (157,391 contracts) but off the summer troughs near 96,932 contracts (May 8, 2026).
  • Trader Breadth: Total reportable trader count ticked up by 3 to 159 traders (versus 156 on October 9).
    • Managed money long traders held steady at 30, while short traders declined from 17 to 14, indicating that the 1,254-contract short flow was concentrated among fewer existing large accounts.
  • Concentration Metrics:
    • Top 4 traders net short: 29.3% of total open interest (vs. 31.1% prior week).
    • Top 8 traders net short: 43.6% of total open interest (vs. 45.3% prior week).
    • Top 4 traders gross short: 32.1% (vs. 33.4% prior week).
    • Top 8 traders gross short: 47.7% (vs. 49.0% prior week).
    • Top 4 traders gross long: 13.9% (vs. 14.4% prior week). Concentration on the short side remains relatively elevated compared to long concentration, though it ticked down modestly this week due to swap short covering.

Price context

The price series for the front contract reflects a pronounced downtrend following the early 2026 spike:

  • Long-Term Arc: Prices peaked at $118.20/oz on January 28, 2026, before enduring a sharp liquidation through February and March.
  • Summer Consolidation & Rally: After dropping to a summer low of $55.955/oz on July 16, 2026, Silver rallied to a secondary high of $69.45/oz on August 27, 2026.
  • Recent Trajectory: Silver prices resumed a downward drift through September, closing at $64.195/oz on September 25 and $60.15/oz on October 2. During the current reporting period, the front contract broke below $60, dipping to $55.535/oz on October 14 before recovering slightly to settle at $57.015/oz on the report date of October 16, 2026.
  • Flow Confirmation: The expansion in open interest (+3,303 contracts) accompanied by declining price and rising Managed Money gross shorts (+1,254) confirms fresh short initiation rather than purely long liquidation.

Risks and watchpoints

  • Short-Covering Vulnerability: With Managed Money net length compressed to just 5,619 contracts and gross shorts exceeding 10,000 contracts, short-side positioning is increasingly crowded relative to recent history. Any macro catalyst could trigger an aggressive short-covering squeeze.
  • Support at Summer Lows: The price action touched $55.535 on October 14, directly testing the July 16 trough of $55.955. Failure to hold the $55.00 level could prompt algorithmic trend-followers to add further short exposure.
  • Commercial De-risking: Commercial accounts have curtailed their net short book to sub-40k contracts, showing that physical producers and swap dealers are no longer aggressively capping rallies at current price levels.
  • Retail Resilience: Nonreportable long positions remain sizable at 26,468 contracts (24.4% of total open interest), representing a potential source of cascading liquidations if small traders are forced to capitulate on deeper price declines.