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Heating Oil COT — Week of October 9, 2026

Heating Oil COT Report: Week Ended October 9, 2026

Executive summary

  • Managed Money Net Long Contracts: Managed money closed the week of October 9, 2026, holding a net long position of 11,427 contracts, down 1,518 contracts week-over-week (WoW) as both gross longs and gross shorts were liquidated.
  • Commercial Hedgers Net Short: Producer/merchants expanded their net short stance to -80,843 contracts, up slightly from -81,189 contracts the previous week, maintaining substantial structural short coverage.
  • Swap Dealer Cushion: Swap dealers hold a massive net long position of 51,087 contracts (23.7% of total OI on the long side vs. 2.7% on the short side).
  • Open Interest Trends: Total open interest grew by 4,319 contracts WoW to 242,852, recovering slightly from the prior week's plunge to 238,533 contracts, but remaining significantly below earlier-year peaks above 380,000 contracts.
  • Price Performance: Front-month Heating Oil futures closed at $4.6698/gal on October 9, 2026, down from an intra-week high of $4.8741/gal on October 8, trading in an elevated consolidation range following the multi-month rally from under $2.20/gal earlier in the year.

Positioning (net, extremes vs recent weeks)

Trader Category Gross Long Gross Short Spreading Net Position Prior Week Net (2026-10-02)
Managed Money 31,649 20,222 21,445 +11,427 +12,945
Producer/Merchant 43,826 124,669 — -80,843 -81,189
Swap Dealers 57,646 6,559 9,315 +51,087 +50,886
Other Reportables 7,615 8,047 21,967 -432 -854
Non-Reportable 49,389 30,628 — +18,761 +18,212

Historical Perspective & Extremes

  • Managed Money: The current net long position of 11,427 contracts sits near the lower half of the 2026 range. In late January and early February, net longs hit +24,377 contracts (2026-02-06), while reaching cyclical lows of +20,344 contracts on 2026-08-28 before retreating further in late September and early October. Current gross length (31,649 contracts) is notably below the late-August peak of 39,534 contracts.
  • Producer/Merchant: Commercial net short positioning at -80,843 contracts is near its least negative levels of 2026. Commercial net shorts were pushed as deep as -112,090 contracts in late January 2026 and -84,175 contracts in late September.
  • Swap Dealers: The net long holding of 51,087 contracts represents a stable structural net long position, though lower than peak levels seen in January (>68,000 net long).

Flows and week-over-week changes

During the reporting week ended October 9, 2026, market participants made the following adjustments:

  • Managed Money Liquidation: Managed money shed 4,156 gross long contracts (-11.6%) and covered 2,638 gross short contracts (-11.5%), resulting in a net contraction of 1,518 contracts. Spreading positions expanded by 1,584 contracts to 21,445.
  • Producer/Merchant Additions: Producers and merchants added 5,318 gross longs and 4,972 gross shorts, resulting in a minor net long flow of +346 contracts.
  • Swap Dealers: Swaps reduced 1,045 longs and trimmed 1,246 shorts, leaving their net balance nearly unchanged (+201 contracts net long WoW).
  • Non-Reportable (Retail/Small Traders): Small traders added 1,617 longs and 1,068 shorts, pushing their net long position up by 549 contracts to +18,761.

Commercials vs speculators

Category              Net Stance (Contracts)
Producer/Merchant    [-80,843]  ████████████████████ (Short)
Swap Dealers         [+51,087]  █████████████ (Long)
Managed Money        [+11,427]  ███ (Long)
Non-Reportable       [+18,761]  █████ (Long)
  • Speculator Caution: Despite the strong upward trajectory of the underlying contract over 2026, managed money has shown clear hesitation to add directional length at these levels. Gross managed money longs (31,649) are close to their yearly lows (seen around 26,603 in April 2026).
  • Commercial Hedging Overhead: Commercial short interest accounts for 51.3% of total open interest (124,669 contracts), reflecting continuous producer forward selling into elevated spot prices.
  • Concentration: The 4 largest traders hold 12.6% of net long positions and 14.3% of net short positions, while the top 8 hold 18.1% of net longs and 21.5% of net shorts. Gross concentration stands at 14.1% long / 17.8% short for the top 4, pointing to a relatively dispersed commercial short structure among 62 reporting short entities.

Open interest and participation

  • Total Open Interest: 242,852 contracts (+4,319 WoW, +1.81%).
  • Structural OI Contraction: Open interest is down roughly 36% from its January 30, 2026 high of 381,075 contracts. This long-term drawdown in total participation highlights that the substantial price rise seen across 2026 has been accompanied by overall market de-leveraging rather than massive speculative inflows.
  • Trader Count: Total reporting traders stood at 169 (down from >200 in early 2026). Managed money counts stand at 33 longs and 15 shorts.

Price context

Front-month Heating Oil daily closes relevant to the recent period: - 2026-09-15: $5.0003 - 2026-09-25: $4.5799 - 2026-10-02: $4.5624 - 2026-10-08: $4.8741 - 2026-10-09: $4.6698

The price series shows Heating Oil rallied dramatically from $2.1872 on January 26, 2026, topping above $5.0000 on September 15. The market subsequently pulled back toward the $4.50–$4.60 zone in late September and early October. The reporting week witnessed a bounce up to $4.8741 before falling back to $4.6698 on October 9.

The COT flows for the week ended October 9 capture speculative de-grossing (Managed Money trimming both longs and shorts) during this volatile price action, indicating that trend followers and discretionary managers took risk off the table on the mid-week push higher.

Risks and watchpoints

  • Speculative Liquidation Risk: With Managed Money trimming 4,156 gross longs in a single week despite prices testing $4.87/gal, speculative appetite appears fragile. Further weakness below the late-September lows ($4.52–$4.54) could trigger additional long-covering.
  • Short-Covering Cushion: Managed money gross shorts declined by 2,638 contracts to 20,222. With short interest dwindling, future upward price spikes will have less fuel from short squeezes.
  • Commercial Discipline: Producer gross shorts increased (+4,972 contracts), demonstrating that upstream market participants are actively utilizing price rebounds toward $4.80+ to lock in hedges.
  • Low Liquidity Regime: Total market open interest (~242k contracts) remains near the low end of its annual range, which can amplify intraday price volatility on physical supply-demand headlines.