Wheat-HRW COT — Week of September 25, 2026
Wheat-HRW — COT Positioning Report (Week of September 25, 2026)
Executive summary
The CFTC Disaggregated Commitments of Traders report for Wheat-HRW (CBOT: KE) for the reporting week ended September 25, 2026, shows a slight deterioration in speculative net length alongside continued commercial short covering:
- Managed Money Net Long Contracts: Decreased by 3,778 contracts WoW to +40,635 contracts (from +44,413 last week), driven by gross long liquidation (-2,115 contracts) and new short additions (+1,663 contracts).
- Commercial Net Short Stance: Commercial producers and merchants reduced their net short exposure by 3,408 contracts to -107,988 contracts (from -111,396 contracts), primarily via the covering of 4,057 gross short contracts.
- Swap Dealers: Maintained a dominant net long stance of +79,585 contracts, dipping slightly by 466 contracts WoW.
- Open Interest (OI): Grew slightly by 1,100 contracts (+0.35%) to 311,936 contracts, consolidating near multi-month highs.
- Price Dynamics: Front-month futures closed at 762.00 cents/bushel on September 25, down 22.00 cents WoW (-2.8%) from 784.00 on September 18, continuing a multi-week retreat from late-August peaks of 845.00 cents/bushel.
Positioning (net, extremes vs recent weeks)
| Trader Category | Gross Long | Gross Short | Spreading | Net Position (Current) | Net Position (Prior Week) | WoW Net Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Managed Money | 76,739 | 36,104 | 76,675 | +40,635 | +44,413 | -3,778 |
| Producer/Merchant | 16,198 | 124,186 | — | -107,988 | -111,396 | +3,408 |
| Swap Dealers | 82,569 | 2,984 | 8,714 | +79,585 | +80,051 | -466 |
| Other Reportables | 8,360 | 22,505 | 21,654 | -14,145 | -14,078 | -67 |
| Nonreportable | 21,027 | 19,114 | — | +1,913 | +1,010 | +903 |
Context & Historical Extremes
- Managed Money: Speculative net length peaked on September 4, 2026, at +48,826 contracts (gross longs at 82,473 vs. gross shorts at 33,647). At +40,635 contracts, net positioning has retreated by ~16.8% from those highs, but remains sharply higher compared to early 2026, when funds held a net short of -26,609 contracts on December 23, 2025.
- Producers/Merchants: Commercial net short positioning peaked at -115,151 contracts on September 11, 2026. This week's -107,988 contracts marks the second consecutive week of commercial short covering as prices corrected lower.
- Swap Dealers: Position remains remarkably stable at the upper end of its multi-month range, holding +79,585 contracts net long, slightly below its mid-May 2026 peak of +81,524 contracts.
Flows and week-over-week changes
Managed money turned outright bearish in its weekly flow dynamic, unwinding longs and establishing new shorts:
- Managed Money Gross Flows: Longs cut 2,115 contracts (-2.7%) to 76,739; shorts increased by 1,663 contracts (+4.8%) to 36,104. Spreading expanded by 2,559 contracts (+3.5%) to 76,675.
- Producer/Merchant Gross Flows: Commercials reduced long holdings by 649 contracts to 16,198 and sharply bought back 4,057 short contracts (-3.2%) to 124,186.
- Swap Dealers: Net long reduction of 466 contracts resulted from shedding 1,076 long contracts against 610 short contracts closed.
- Small Traders (Nonreportable): Net length expanded by 903 contracts to +1,913 contracts, fueled by buying 641 longs and liquidating 262 shorts.
Managed Money Flow Breakdown:
Long Liquidation: -2,115 contracts
Short Additions: +1,663 contracts
Net Weekly Flow: -3,778 contracts (Bearish flow)
Commercials vs speculators
The divergence between commercials and specs continued to narrow modestly for the second straight week:
- Speculative Share of Open Interest: Managed money accounts for 24.6% of total gross long OI and 11.6% of total gross short OI, with an additional 24.6% deployed in spreading strategies. Speculative concentration in spreading remains elevated, reflecting calendar spread positioning during the roll cycle.
- Commercial Hedging Stance: Producer/merchants hold 39.8% of total open interest on the short side versus just 5.2% on the long side. Commercials have taken advantage of the price pullback from 845.00c down to the 760–780c zone to systematically cover short hedges.
Open interest and participation
- Total Open Interest: Advanced by 1,100 contracts (+0.35%) to 311,936 contracts, remaining slightly below the 2026 high of 315,942 contracts set on June 5, 2026.
- Trader Breadth: Total unique reportable entities decreased by 4 to 286 traders (59 managed money longs, 35 managed money shorts, and 87 producer/merchant shorts).
- Concentration Metrics:
- Top 4 Traders: Net position accounted for 11.2% long and 10.1% short; gross position accounted for 14.0% long and 13.7% short.
- Top 8 Traders: Net position accounted for 19.7% long and 15.9% short; gross position accounted for 24.1% long and 22.8% short.
- Concentration levels remain well-distributed across active participants without extreme top-heavy risks.
Price context
The front-month Wheat-HRW futures contract exhibited a clear downward trend across the reporting week and the preceding month:
- Weekly Trajectory: From the prior Tuesday close of 796.00 on September 15 (and 784.00 on Friday, September 18), front-month KE drifted down through 779.50 (Sep 22), 769.75 (Sep 23), and 765.50 (Sep 24), settling at 762.00 cents/bushel on September 25.
- Broader Range: Prices peaked at 845.00 cents/bushel on August 28, 2026, and have since fallen by 83.00 cents (-9.8%).
- Price-Positioning Alignment: The decline in price aligns with the reduction in managed money net length (-8,191 contracts since the September 4 peak) and short covering by producers, indicating a classic profit-taking and long-unwinding correction following an extended rally.
Risks and watchpoints
- Managed Money Liquidation Momentum: Funds still hold a sizeable gross long position of 76,739 contracts. If futures breach key support below 760.00c, further long liquidation could trigger accelerated selling.
- Commercial Support Floor: Commercials bought back 4,057 short contracts this week. Persistent commercial covering could provide a technical floor near current price levels.
- Elevated Spreading Positions: Managed money spreading sits at 76,675 contracts (24.6% of OI), pointing to substantial roll activity between old-crop and new-crop contract months that could amplify prompt-month volatility.