HRW Wheat (KE) Futures COT Report - Week ending May 15, 2026

Executive summary

This report covers a period of significant price strength where the market rallied sharply into the May 12th cutoff date. Positioning has become increasingly polarized, with speculators (Managed Money) holding a large net long position near recent highs, while commercial participants (Producers/Merchants) have extended their net short position to the largest level seen in over five months. The recent price surge was met with increased hedging from producers and profit-taking from money managers, while Swap Dealers substantially increased their net long exposure, absorbing the commercial selling. The market appears bullishly positioned but crowded, creating a risk of sharp pullbacks on any shift in sentiment.

Positioning

• Managed Money (Speculators): The net long position for this group stands at +36,707 contracts (74,853 long vs. 38,146 short). This is a slight decrease from last week's +37,981 contracts but remains near the highest level in the provided data series. This represents a major trend reversal from late 2025 when this category held a net short position of over 26,000 contracts.
• Producer/Merchants (Commercials): This group is heavily net short at -91,687 contracts (22,964 long vs. 114,651 short). This is the largest net short position recorded in the historical data provided, indicating aggressive selling/hedging by producers into the recent price rally.
• Swap Dealers: Swap Dealers hold a very large net long position of +77,856 contracts (85,535 long vs. 7,679 short), an increase from the prior week and also near the highs for the period. They continue to act as the primary counterparty to commercial hedgers.

Flows and week-over-week changes

• Managed Money: This group was a small net seller, reducing their net long position by 1,274 contracts. This was driven primarily by long liquidation (-1,152 contracts) and minor fresh shorting (+122 contracts), suggesting some profit-taking during the week's rally.
• Producer/Merchants: Commercials increased their net short position by 2,119 contracts. This came from a combination of trimming long positions (-618 contracts) and adding new shorts (+1,501 contracts).
• Swap Dealers: This category was the largest net buyer, increasing their net long position by 3,866 contracts. The flow was comprised of significant new longs (+3,356 contracts) and short covering (-510 contracts).
• Non-reportable (Retail): Small retail traders turned more bearish, increasing their net short position. They added 1,299 longs but added a more substantial 2,900 short contracts.

Commercials vs speculators

The classic divergence between commercial and speculative players is now at an extreme. - Speculators (Managed Money) have built a conviction long position, flipping from a net short of -26,609 contracts in late December to a net long of +36,707 contracts now. - Commercials (Producers/Merchants) have taken the opposite view, using the rally to expand their net short hedge book from -49,671 contracts in December to a multi-month high of -91,687 contracts. This stretched positioning highlights a strong disagreement on market direction. While commercials are often short, the current magnitude suggests they view prices as very favorable for hedging future production.

Open interest and participation

• Total open interest rose by 4,488 contracts to a total of 297,542. The increase in OI alongside a sharp price rally and net new commercial shorting indicates that new risk capital is entering the market, confirming the strength of the underlying trend.
• Current OI is off the highs of over 312,000 contracts seen in February but has been trending higher for the last three weeks, recovering from the lows of the period.
• Market concentration remains moderate. The four largest traders by net position account for 11.7% of the long side and 13.3% of the short side, showing no undue influence from a small number of players.

Price context

The price data provided shows a strong bull trend since January. - The price of the front-month contract rallied from a low of around 541.5 cents/bushel in early January to a closing price of 688.5 on May 15. - Crucially, during the week covered by this COT report (from May 6 to May 12), the price surged dramatically from 677.25 to 731.25. - The positioning changes align with this price action: producers sold aggressively into this rally to hedge, while money managers took some profits off the table. The primary buyers absorbing the producer selling and fuelling the rally were Swap Dealers.

Risks and watchpoints

• Crowded Speculative Long: The large net long position held by Managed Money makes the market vulnerable to a sharp correction if the bullish narrative changes. A rush of long liquidation could accelerate any sell-off.
• Extreme Commercial Short: The record net short position held by commercials is a significant feature. While it reflects bearishness from producers, it also means a large pool of natural buyers will exist if prices fall, as they would buy back hedges. Conversely, any short-covering rally could be explosive, as these positions would need to be closed out.
• Swap Dealer Exposure: Swap Dealers are carrying a massive long position against commercial shorts. Their continued willingness to facilitate this trade is critical for market stability. Any reduction in their risk appetite could impact liquidity.
• Watch for Managed Money Re-engagement: While they took minor profits this week, the primary speculative trend has been to buy. Watch to see if they re-enter on dips to add to their positions, which would be a signal of continued bullish conviction.

This is a snapshot of market positioning and not financial advice. Positions can and do change rapidly.