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Sugar COT — Week of September 25, 2026

Sugar (SB) COT Report: Week of September 25, 2026

Executive summary

The CFTC Disaggregated Commitments of Traders (COT) report for the week ending September 25, 2026, reflects a notable round of broad-based de-risking and long liquidation across the Sugar futures complex.

  • Managed Money: Held a net long position of 216,629 contracts (313,924 long vs. 97,295 short), down 8,801 contracts week-over-week. This marks the third consecutive week of net long contraction since the peak of +238,684 contracts set on September 11, 2026.
  • Commercial Positioning: Producer/Merchants reduced gross short exposure by 22,808 contracts and gross longs by 17,857 contracts, bringing their net short posture to -340,141 contracts.
  • Open Interest: Total open interest dropped sharply by 71,756 contracts (-5.88%) to 1,147,767 contracts, highlighting substantial position unwinding and contract rollover/expiration dynamics across categories.

Positioning (net, extremes vs recent weeks)

Trader Category Gross Long Gross Short Spreading Net Position % of Total OI (Long / Short)
Managed Money 313,924 97,295 121,592 +216,629 27.4% / 8.5%
Producer/Merchant 221,007 561,148 — -340,141 19.3% / 48.9%
Swap Dealers 251,023 127,979 17,680 +123,044 21.9% / 11.2%
Other Reportables 49,032 101,257 68,436 -52,225 4.3% / 8.8%
Nonreportable 105,073 52,380 — +52,693 9.2% / 4.6%

Historical Perspective & Extremes

  • Speculative Shift: Managed Money positioning remains firmly bullish relative to earlier in 2026. In March 2026, Managed Money was deeply net short (e.g., -238,217 contracts on March 6, 2026). The net long position surged through August (reaching +238,684 contracts in mid-September) and is currently undergoing moderate consolidation.
  • Producer Hedging: Producer/Merchant net short exposure (-340,141 contracts) has retreated from the September 18 high (-345,092 contracts) and remains substantially larger than the ~250k–280k net short levels observed during Q1 2026.

Flows and week-over-week changes

The weekly change in positioning was dominated by contract liquidation and short-covering across non-speculative desks:

  • Managed Money: Trimmed 7,444 long contracts and added 1,357 short contracts. Spreading positions saw heavy liquidation, declining by 17,830 contracts.
  • Producer/Merchant: Cut 17,857 gross longs and 22,808 gross shorts, producing a net positive flow of +4,951 contracts.
  • Swap Dealers: Executed aggressive short-covering, shedding 19,102 short contracts while paring 3,104 long contracts, driving their net long position higher by +15,998 contracts.
  • Other Reportables: Paring longs (-7,019) and spreading (-11,139) while adding 2,291 short contracts.
  • Nonreportable (Small Traders): Closed 7,497 long positions and 4,659 short positions, reducing net long exposure by 2,838 contracts.
Managed Money Net Change:      -8,801 contracts (Long liquidation + short adds)
Producer/Merchant Net Change:  +4,951 contracts (Short covering > long trimming)
Swap Dealer Net Change:       +15,998 contracts (Significant short-covering)
Total Open Interest Change:   -71,756 contracts (-5.88%)

Commercials vs speculators

The structural dynamic continues to reflect a heavily defended commercial short stance against a sizable speculative long book:

  • Commercial Overhang: Producer/Merchants control 48.9% of the total short open interest (561,148 contracts), signaling heavy supply hedging at current market levels despite trimming 22,808 contracts this week.
  • Speculative Concentration: Managed Money accounts for 27.4% of total long open interest (313,924 contracts) and only 8.5% of gross shorts.
  • Swap Intermediation: Swap Dealers hold a net long posture of +123,044 contracts, absorbing a meaningful portion of commercial producer short hedges.

Open interest and participation

  • Total Open Interest: Stood at 1,147,767 contracts, down 71,756 contracts from the prior week (1,219,523 contracts) and down 128,812 contracts from the peak of 1,276,579 contracts recorded on September 11, 2026.
  • Trader Participation: Total trader count increased slightly to 294 traders (up from 292 last week).
    • Managed Money: 77 long traders, 30 short traders, and 59 spreading traders.
    • Producer/Merchant: 51 long traders and 60 short traders.
  • Concentration:
    • The top 4 largest net long traders account for 12.0% of open interest; the top 4 net short traders hold 19.0%.
    • The top 8 gross short traders control 38.9% of the market (compared to 23.3% for the top 8 gross longs), underscoring high concentration on the producer hedging side.

Price context (only using provided series)

  • Price Data Status: Front-month daily price series quotes are missing/unavailable in the current reporting feed. Price-to-positioning correlation cannot be calculated directly from internal price series for this reporting window.

Risks and watchpoints

  1. Speculative Long Vulnerability: Managed Money maintains a large gross long book (313,924 contracts). With open interest dropping and long liquidation ongoing for two consecutive weeks (-10,397 longs on Sept 18; -7,444 longs on Sept 25), an acceleration in fund selling poses downside positioning risk.
  2. Commercial Hedging Scale: Producer/Merchant gross shorts sit above 560k contracts. Sustained commercial producer selling could cap rallies unless fresh speculative capital enters the market.
  3. Rollover / Liquidity Contraction: The 71,756 contract contraction in open interest and large drop in spreading (-17,830 MM spreading contracts) indicates sharp contract rollover activity; monitoring whether open interest stabilizes will be key to gauging underlying trend momentum.