Soybeans Futures & Options Commitments of Traders - Week Ending 2026-02-13

Executive summary

This week's report reveals an explosive surge in bullish sentiment among speculators, coinciding with a sharp price rally. Managed Money added a staggering 86,743 contracts to their net long position, driven by a combination of aggressive new longs and significant short covering. In classic fashion, Commercial participants met this speculative buying by substantially increasing their net short hedges, selling into strength. The surge in open interest confirms that new capital flowed into the market, validating the significance of the week's price move and positioning shift. While momentum is clearly bullish, the spec position is now significantly more crowded, raising the risk of a sharp pullback if the buying pressure abates.

Positioning

• Managed Money (Funds): The net long position for Managed Money exploded to +115,896 contracts. This is a dramatic reversal from the +29,153 net long position held the previous week and brings their positioning closer to the multi-month highs seen in late December (+154,974 contracts).
• Producer/Merchant (Commercials): Commercials significantly increased their net short position to -231,365 contracts, up from -163,925 contracts the week prior. This deepens their short exposure to levels not seen since early January.
• Swap Dealers: This category holds a substantial net long position of +112,458 contracts, a slight decrease from the previous week.

Flows and week-over-week changes

The weekly flows highlight a major divergence between speculative and commercial players. - Managed Money: Showed extreme bullish conviction. - Added 49,588 new long contracts. - Covered (bought back) 37,155 short contracts. - The net effect was a massive +86,743 contract shift in their net position. - Producer/Merchant: Acted as the primary sellers into the rally. - Added a massive 76,387 new short (hedge) contracts. - Increased longs by a modest 8,947 contracts. - The net effect was a -67,440 contract shift, deepening their net short stance.

Commercials vs speculators

The classic dynamic of speculators buying a trend and commercials hedging into it was on full display. - Speculators (Managed Money): The aggressive addition of longs and covering of shorts indicates that fund managers were either chasing the upward price momentum, reacting to a fundamental shift, or forced to cover bearish bets in a "short squeeze" scenario. Their gross long position (170,099) is now more than three times their gross short position (54,203). - Commercials (Producers/Merchants): The large increase in gross shorts (+76,387) signals that physical producers and users of soybeans view the current price levels as an attractive opportunity to lock in forward prices and hedge their physical inventories or future production. They are the natural sellers in this rally.

Open interest and participation

• Open Interest: Total open interest surged by 52,270 contracts to a total of 935,448. A significant increase in open interest during a strong price rally is a sign of conviction, as it indicates new money entering the market rather than just a transfer of risk between existing participants. This is the highest level of open interest in the provided historical data.
• Trader Concentration: The market shows a moderate level of concentration. The largest 4 traders account for 12.2% of the net short position, and the largest 8 traders account for 19.6%. This indicates that the commercial hedging is distributed among several large players.

Price context

The positioning changes align perfectly with the provided price series. The COT reporting week (covering trades through Tuesday, Feb 10th, though the report is dated Feb 13th) occurred during a strong price rally. - The front-month contract closed at 1105.5 on Feb 6th and rallied to 1135.5 by Feb 13th. - The majority of the aggressive buying from Managed Money likely fueled or occurred in response to the sharp price increase from 1066.5 on Feb 4th to over 1110.0 by the end of the reporting period.

Risks and watchpoints

• Crowded Long Trade: The enormous one-week shift has made the Managed Money long position significantly more crowded. This concentration makes the market vulnerable to a sharp long liquidation event if the upward momentum stalls or a bearish catalyst emerges.
• Commercial Selling Pressure: The willingness of commercials to sell heavily into this rally could provide significant resistance and potentially cap further price gains. Their actions suggest they believe current prices are at or above fair value.
• Follow-Through: The key question for the market is whether the speculative buying will continue. Another week of strong fund buying could push prices higher, while an exhaustion of this buying could see prices quickly reverse as profit-taking sets in.