Silver — Physical Market Brief: October 16, 2026

Executive summary

Physical delivery activity for COMEX silver futures (SI) continued to moderate as mid-month approached, registering just 18 contracts issued and stopped on October 16, 2026. This brings month-to-date (MTD) October deliveries to 3,280 contracts. The pace of physical notices has noticeably downshifted from the active pulses seen earlier in the cycle (notably October 7–8, which saw 688 contracts delivered across two sessions). Concurrently, contract settlement prices have softened from above $60.00/oz earlier in the month to $56.995/oz. When cross-checked against speculative positioning, Managed Money maintains a modest net long stance, whereas commercial entities remain heavily short, indicating that physical deliveries are normalizing amid receding price levels.

Delivery intentions (today + MTD context)

• Today's Activity (October 16, 2026):
  • Contracts Issued/Stopped: 18 contracts (90,000 troy ounces equivalent).
  • Contract: OCTOBER 2026 COMEX 5000 SILVER FUTURES.
  • Settlement Price: $56.995/oz.
  • Intent Date: October 16, 2026 (Delivery Date: October 20, 2026).
• Month-to-Date Cumulative Total: 3,280 contracts.
• Trend & Historical Context:
  • Delivery volume has tapered significantly following an early October pickup. Over the past three reporting sessions, daily issues stood at 1 contract (Oct 9), 4 contracts (Oct 12), and 120 contracts (Oct 13), before dipping to 18 contracts today.
  • October delivery intensity remains well below the active September delivery cycle, which reached 6,773 contracts by late September.
  • All recent October delivery notices have been concentrated solely in the full-sized 5,000 oz contract, with no Micro Silver delivery notices recorded since the 5 contracts stopped on October 1.

Warehouse stocks

• CME does not publish COMEX silver warehouse stock movements in this reporting feed (recorded as null).
• Physical availability metrics are evaluated via delivery stop-and-issue patterns and open interest settlement behavior.

COT cross-check

• As of Date: October 9, 2026
• Total Open Interest: 105,130 contracts
• Managed Money: 16,457 longs vs. 8,929 shorts (Net Long: +7,528 contracts)
• Producer/Merchant: 4,411 longs vs. 20,664 shorts (Net Short: -16,253 contracts)

Positioning vs. Physical Flow: Speculative positioning reflects modest net bullishness (+7,528 contracts), while commercial participants maintain significant hedge short exposure (-16,253 contracts). The light delivery pace in mid-October aligns with the lower open interest environment (105,130 contracts) and the price correction down to $56.995/oz. There is currently little sign of aggressive physical delivery demand or commercial short squeezing, as deliveries are proceeding at an orderly, low-volume pace.

Risks and watchpoints

• Price Slippage on Tapering Deliveries: The price decline from $61.168/oz (Oct 6) to $56.995/oz (Oct 16) alongside dwindling daily delivery notices suggests diminished near-term off-take urgency from physical stoppers.
• Commercial Hedging Overhead: Heavy commercial short exposure (20,664 contracts) against relatively lean non-commercial positioning poses an ongoing headwind if broad investment demand softens.
• Late-Month Expiration Flows: Watch for any secondary wave of notices heading into October contract expiration, particularly if settlement prices stabilize near the $57.00/oz threshold.