Silver Physical Market Brief — 2026-09-30

Executive summary

Physical delivery activity in COMEX silver futures (SI) transitioned into the October 2026 contract cycle on September 30, with a combined 57 contracts issued and stopped across standard and micro contracts. This follows a heavy delivery cycle for the expiring September contract, which concluded with month-to-date totals of 6,773 standard contracts (33.865 million troy ounces) and 1,945 micro contracts. Settlement prices have pulled back from late-August highs near $69.43/oz to $60.10/oz as the delivery focus shifts toward October prompt deliveries.

Delivery intentions (today + MTD context)

On September 30, 2026, total daily delivery intentions stood at 57 contracts issued and stopped (effective delivery date October 2, 2026), with both standard and micro contracts settling at $60.098 USD:

• October 2026 COMEX 5000 Silver Futures: 37 contracts issued / stopped (Month-to-Date total: 1,994 contracts).
• October 2026 Micro Silver Futures: 20 contracts issued / stopped (Month-to-Date total: 765 contracts).

Delivery trend context

• September Contract Wrap-Up: The September cycle saw substantial physical absorption throughout the month, recording major single-day delivery bursts such as 755 total contracts on September 29, 497 on September 24, and 615 on September 23. Standard September COMEX 5000 deliveries reached an aggregate of 6,773 contracts before expiration.
• October Cycle Inception: Delivery notices for October began active issuance on September 29 with an initial batch of 745 Micro Silver contracts, followed by today's balanced allocation across standard (37) and micro (20) contracts.

Warehouse stocks

CME does not publish warehouse stocks for this metal in the provided feed dataset.

COT cross-check

The latest CFTC Commitments of Traders (COT) report (as of September 25, 2026) indicates:

• Managed Money Positioning: Net long of +13,309 contracts (19,303 longs vs. 5,994 shorts).
• Commercial Positioning (Producer/Merchant): Net short of -18,512 contracts (4,047 longs vs. 22,559 shorts).
• Total Open Interest: 106,474 contracts.

Divergence Analysis: Speculative positioning remains moderately net-long while commercial hedgers maintain an established net-short stance. However, physical delivery momentum from the September cycle did not spark a sustained squeeze, as price settlements drifted lower from ~$65.80/oz on September 21 to $60.10/oz by month-end. Physical demand through deliveries remains steady into the initial October notice days, but managed money length has yet to aggressively expand relative to overall open interest.

Risks and watchpoints

• Early-Month October Deliveries: Monitor whether October contract notices maintain steady absorption or taper off quickly following the rollover from September.
• Price Support Around $60.00/oz: Watch whether settlement prices stabilize near the $60.10 mark after dropping from recent peaks above $69.00/oz in late August.
• Commercial Hedging Flow: Track shifts in commercial short positioning to gauge if physical suppliers are stepping up delivery coverage or reducing forward hedge commitments.