Silver Physical Market Brief: 2026-09-04

Executive summary

Physical delivery activity for the September SI contract slowed today, with 47 contracts posted, a notable decrease from 189 contracts the prior day. Despite this daily dip, month-to-date (MTD) deliveries remain robust at 5,039 contracts, indicating consistent physical settlement throughout the delivery period. The latest CFTC data shows Managed Money participants holding a significant net long position, a bullish stance that is being met by substantial physical delivery from Commercials, who are heavily net short. The key dynamic to watch is whether the pace of physical offtake can continue to support the bullish speculative positioning.

Delivery intentions (today + MTD context)

Intentions to deliver physical silver against COMEX futures contracts saw a significant slowdown today.

• Today's Total: 47 contracts were issued and stopped for delivery.
• Daily Breakdown:
  • SEPTEMBER 2026 COMEX 5000 SILVER FUTURES: 7 contracts.
  • SEPTEMBER 2026 MICRO SILVER FUTURES: 40 contracts.
• Month-to-Date (MTD): Total deliveries for the September contract period now stand at 5,039 contracts.
• Trend Context: Today's volume of 47 contracts is down sharply from 189 yesterday and 666 on September 1st, suggesting that the initial, heavier delivery activity for the month may be tapering off. However, daily volumes have been inconsistent, and the MTD total remains strong.

Warehouse stocks

CME does not publish detailed, daily public warehouse stock levels for COMEX Silver futures. Analysis must therefore rely on delivery intentions and flows.

COT cross-check

A cross-check with the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report highlights a classic market structure where speculative and commercial interests diverge.

• Managed Money (Speculators): This group holds a net long position of 12,598 contracts (19,156 long vs. 6,558 short). This indicates a strong bullish bias from funds.
• Producer/Merchant (Commercials): This group holds a large net short position of -16,675 contracts (5,168 long vs. 21,843 short), reflecting hedging and a willingness to deliver physical metal at current prices.
• Divergence View: The strong physical delivery volume MTD (5,039 contracts) confirms that commercials are actively using the futures market to deliver metal, meeting the demand reflected in the long positions held by speculators and other participants.

Risks and watchpoints

• Pace of Delivery: The sharp drop in daily delivery notices from 189 to 47 is a key watchpoint. A continued slowdown could suggest that near-term physical demand is being satisfied, while a rebound would signal persistent appetite for physical metal.
• Open Interest Context: With total open interest at 104,362 contracts, the 5,039 contracts settled physically this month represent a significant portion of the expiring front-month contract. How this dynamic plays out in subsequent delivery months will be critical.
• Data Limitations: The absence of public warehouse stock data remains a challenge, placing greater emphasis on interpreting daily delivery flows as the primary indicator of physical market tightness.