Silver Physical Market Brief: August 18, 2026

Executive summary

Physical delivery intentions for the August Silver contract continue to build, with the month-to-date total now exceeding 1,600 contracts. Today's activity saw 52 new notices, a slowdown from the previous session but still contributing to a steady accumulation of physical offtake for the month. Speculative positioning via the latest COT report shows that managed money remains significantly net long, a stance that is currently supported by the consistent, albeit not explosive, demand for physical delivery.

Delivery intentions (today + MTD context)

• Today's Activity: For August 18, a total of 52 contracts for the August 2026 COMEX 5000 Silver futures (SI) were issued and stopped, indicating continued demand for physical settlement. This is a decrease from the 86 contracts reported in the prior session on August 17.
• Month-to-Date (MTD): The cumulative delivery total for the August contract has now reached 1,606 contracts.
• Trend: Deliveries have been consistent throughout August, growing from an initial 705 contracts at the start of the month (July 31) to the current total of 1,606, demonstrating a persistent demand for physical metal through the futures market mechanism.

Warehouse stocks

CME does not publish detailed COMEX-approved warehouse stock levels for Silver in this data feed. Analysis is therefore focused on delivery flows as the primary indicator of physical market tightness.

COT cross-check

The latest Commitments of Traders (COT) report, dated August 14, provides a useful cross-check against the physical market flows. - Managed Money: Speculators remain solidly bullish, holding a net long position of 11,158 contracts (19,956 long vs. 8,798 short). - Commercials: As is typical, Producer/Merchant participants hold a large net short position of -15,946 contracts (5,452 long vs. 21,398 short). - Positioning vs. Physical: The significant net long speculative position currently aligns with the steady demand for physical delivery seen this month (1,606 contracts MTD). There is no major divergence at present; speculative sentiment appears to be in sync with the physical offtake.

Risks and watchpoints

• Pace of Delivery: The key variable to monitor is whether the daily delivery volume for the August SI contract accelerates as the month progresses. A significant spike in delivery notices could signal a tightening of immediately available supply.
• Open Interest vs. Delivery: The month-to-date delivery volume of 1,606 contracts represents a small but tangible portion of the total open interest of 115,127 contracts. A sustained increase in the ratio of deliveries to open interest would be a bullish physical signal.
• Speculative Unwind: A primary risk would be a sharp reduction in the Managed Money net long position. If speculators were to sell off their paper positions while physical demand remains robust, it could create significant price volatility and highlight a potential disconnect between the paper and physical markets.