Silver Physical Market Brief: 2026-08-05

Executive summary

Physical delivery activity for the August Silver (SI) contract has slowed to a near standstill, with just one notice filed for today's session. This sharp deceleration early in the delivery month suggests weak immediate demand for physical metal through the futures market. This contrasts with the latest CFTC data, which shows money managers holding a significant net long position, indicating a potential divergence between speculative sentiment and physical market signals.

Delivery intentions (today + MTD context)

Delivery intentions for the August 2026 COMEX 5000 Silver Futures contract have tapered off significantly.

• Today's Activity: Only 1 contract was issued and stopped, a minimal level of activity.
• Month-to-Date (MTD): The total for the August contract now stands at 925 contracts.
• Recent Trend: Today's single notice represents a sharp drop from the 71 contracts reported on August 4th and the 150 contracts on August 3rd, indicating that the initial delivery activity for the month has concluded quickly.

For more details, see the full warehouse and delivery data.

Warehouse stocks

CME does not publish aggregated daily warehouse stock levels for COMEX Silver futures. Analysis must rely on delivery intentions as the primary indicator of physical flow.

COT cross-check

The latest COT data, for the week ending July 31st, indicates a divergence between speculative positioning and the current physical delivery trend.

• Managed Money: Speculators held a net long position of +9,182 contracts (17,939 long vs. 8,757 short). This bullish positioning is not being validated by strong physical offtake via futures delivery.
• Commercials (Producers/Merchants): Commercials held a large net short position of -13,029 contracts, which is typical for hedging but also aligns with the observed softness in physical demand.

Risks and watchpoints

• Positioning vs. Physical Divergence: The primary watchpoint is the contrast between the net long speculative stance and the extremely low volume of delivery notices. This suggests that recent price support may be more rooted in financial positioning than in immediate physical tightness.
• Delivery Flow: Monitor if delivery activity remains dormant for the rest of the August cycle. A continued lack of buyers standing for delivery could signal underlying physical weakness.
• COT Data Lag: The positioning data is as of July 31st. The next report will be critical to determine if speculators have reduced their long exposure in the first week of August, potentially aligning their positions more closely with the weak physical signals.