Silver Physical Market Brief: 2026-07-27

Executive summary

Physical delivery activity for the July COMEX Silver contract has slowed to a trickle, consistent with the end of the delivery cycle. However, the month-to-date total remains robust at over 9,100 contracts, indicating solid demand for physical settlement throughout the month. This strong physical offtake aligns with the latest CFTC data, which shows Managed Money speculators holding a significant net long position. The primary dynamic to watch is whether this physical demand will carry over into the next active contract month.

Delivery intentions (today + MTD context)

Delivery notices for the July 2026 contract have slowed significantly as the contract period concludes.

• Today's Activity: A total of 3 contracts were issued and stopped for the JULY 2026 COMEX 5000 SILVER FUTURES.
• Month-to-Date (MTD): The total for the July delivery period now stands at 9,168 contracts.
• Recent Trend: Today's volume is a sharp drop from recent days. For comparison, 18 contracts were tendered on July 24, 28 on July 23, and a much larger 305 contracts on July 22. This tailing off of activity is typical for a contract nearing expiry.

Warehouse stocks

CME Group does not publish daily warehouse stock levels for COMEX Silver in this report. Therefore, a direct analysis of inventory changes is not possible from this data.

COT cross-check

The latest CFTC positioning data as of July 24 shows a clear divergence between speculative and commercial participants, with speculators positioned for higher prices.

• Managed Money: Speculators hold a significant net long position of +11,282 contracts (18,204 long vs. 6,922 short).
• Commercials (Producer/Merchant): Commercials maintain a large net short position of -13,044 contracts (5,623 long vs. 18,667 short), typical of hedging activity.
• Divergence Analysis: The strong speculative net long stance is consistent with the substantial month-to-date physical delivery total of 9,168 contracts. This suggests that the bullish paper positioning has been, at least in part, backed by a willingness to take physical delivery, lending credibility to the trend.

Risks and watchpoints

• End-of-Contract Quiet: With only 3 contracts tendered, the July contract delivery cycle appears to be concluding quietly. Any unexpected, large last-minute notices would be a significant surprise.
• Transition to Next Active Month: The key question is whether the strong demand for physical settlement seen in July (9,168 contracts MTD) will translate to the next active delivery month. This will be the primary indicator of sustained physical market tightness.
• Speculative Positioning: While validated by physical offtake this month, the large net long position held by Managed Money could become a source of volatility if price momentum stalls, potentially leading to long liquidation.