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Silver COT — Week of October 2, 2026

Silver COT Report: Week Ended October 2, 2026

Executive summary

The CFTC Disaggregated Commitments of Traders report for Silver (COMEX: SI) for the week ending October 2, 2026, reflects a sharp de-risking and positioning retreat among speculative participants alongside steady commercial absorption:

  • Managed Money Net Long Position Drops Sharply: Managed Money net length contracted by 5,695 contracts week-over-week (WoW) to +7,614 contracts (from +13,309 contracts in the prior week). This was driven by a combination of long liquidation (-2,417 contracts) and aggressive short additions (+3,278 contracts).
  • Commercial Hedging Deficit Narrows: The combined commercial net short position (Producer/Merchant + Swap Dealer) contracted to -40,010 contracts from -44,754 contracts, representing short-covering and gross long additions as prices softened.
  • Open Interest Remains Subdued: Aggregate open interest ticked up slightly by 573 contracts (+0.54%) to 107,047 contracts, remaining well below early-year highs (>157k contracts).
  • Price Trend Alignment: The positioning reduction aligns with front-month futures pulling back from late-August highs near $69.45/oz to close at $60.15/oz on October 2, 2026.

Positioning (net, extremes vs recent weeks)

Trader Category Gross Long Gross Short Spreading Net Position % of Open Interest (Net)
Managed Money 16,886 9,272 7,295 +7,614 +7.1%
Producer/Merchant 5,032 21,544 — -16,512 -15.4%
Swap Dealers 23,671 47,169 5,392 -23,498 -22.0%
Other Reportables 16,596 2,127 5,040 +14,469 +13.5%
Non-Reportable 27,135 9,208 — +17,927 +16.7%

Historical Positioning Context:

  • Managed Money: At +7,614 contracts, net long exposure has collapsed to its lowest level since May 2026 (+10,606 on May 1), and is far below the multi-month peak of +21,887 contracts registered on December 23, 2025, and +15,761 contracts reached on May 15, 2026. Gross shorts (9,272 contracts) reached their highest level since early February 2026.
  • Commercials: Total commercial net short exposure (-40,010 contracts) is at its least restrictive level since early May 2026 (-39,947 on May 8), down significantly from the peak short exposure seen in late-July/August (exceeding -48,000 contracts).
  • Non-Reportables (Retail/Smaller Traders): Net length stands at +17,927 contracts, retreating slightly from recent peaks above +19,000 contracts, but remains a persistent core long pillar in the market (representing 25.3% of total gross long open interest).

Flows and week-over-week changes

Total open interest rose marginally by 573 contracts (+0.54%) to 107,047 contracts. Significant category-level flows include:

Managed Money Longs:        -2,417 contracts
Managed Money Shorts:       +3,278 contracts
Managed Money Spreading:      -846 contracts
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Managed Money Net Change:   -5,695 contracts (Bearish flow)

Producer/Merchant Longs:      +985 contracts
Producer/Merchant Shorts:   -1,015 contracts
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Producer/Merchant Net:      +2,000 contracts (Hedger buying)

Swap Dealer Longs:            +926 contracts
Swap Dealer Shorts:         -1,818 contracts
Swap Dealer Spreading:      +1,008 contracts
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Swap Dealer Net Change:     +2,744 contracts (Short covering)

Other Reportables Net:      +2,334 contracts (Longs +1,198 / Shorts -1,136)
Non-Reportable Net:         -1,383 contracts (Longs -595 / Shorts +788)

The data shows a clear divergence: systematic and discretionary funds (Managed Money) drove selling pressure through both liquidation and aggressive new short creation, while commercial entities and Other Reportables stepped in as liquidity providers to absorb the flow.

Commercials vs speculators

  Commercial Net vs Managed Money Net Position (Contracts)
  ==========================================================
  Swap Dealers + Producers (Commercial Net):   [-40,010] 
  Managed Money (Speculator Net):             [ +7,614] 
  Other Reportables (Spec/Inst Net):          [+14,469] 
  Non-Reportables (Small Traders Net):        [+17,927]
  • Hedger Behavior: Commercial entities reduced their aggregate net short by 4,744 contracts. Producer/Merchants trimmed short exposure to 21,544 contracts (from 22,559) and added 985 longs to 5,032 contracts. Swap dealers actively covered 1,818 short contracts while adding 926 long contracts.
  • Speculative Conviction: Speculator conviction continues to wane. Managed Money gross longs dropped to 16,886 contracts, down from 19,303 the previous week and peak levels of 36,424 in late 2025. Concurrently, gross shorts rose from 5,994 to 9,272 contracts, signaling fresh momentum-based short positioning.

Open interest and participation

  • Participation Breakdown: Total trader count declined from 157 to 149 active reportable entities, demonstrating thinning market breadth compared to the 240 active traders present during December 2025.
  • Concentration Metrics:
    • Top 4 Traders: Net short position of 30.1% (33.4% gross short) and net long position of 14.0% (14.1% gross long).
    • Top 8 Traders: Net short position of 44.5% (49.2% gross short) and net long position of 21.3% (22.5% gross long).
  • Analysis: Short concentration among the top 4 and top 8 traders remains relatively heavy (nearly half of all short open interest is held by the 8 largest traders), underscoring that institutional short liquidity remains consolidated among primary bullion dealers and swap desks.

Price context

Front-month Silver futures prices leading up to the October 2, 2026, COT cut-off exhibited a pronounced downdraft:

  • Recent Price Action:
    • Price closed at $60.15/oz on October 2, 2026, down from $64.195/oz on September 25, 2026 (-6.30% WoW).
    • The market has steadily corrected since peaking near $69.45/oz on August 27, 2026, and is down substantially from extreme highs seen earlier in the year (e.g., $118.20/oz on January 28, 2026).
  • Positioning Correlation: The drop from $64.20 to $60.15 directly coincides with Managed Money dumping 5,695 net contracts and adds confirmation that the price breakdown over the reporting week was driven by speculative long capitulation and tactical short selling rather than producer hedging.

Risks and watchpoints

  • Short-Squeeze Risk on Managed Money Expansion: Managed Money gross short positioning expanded by +54.7% WoW (from 5,994 to 9,272 contracts). If prices stabilize above the psychological $60.00 level, these newly minted shorts could become vulnerable to rapid covering.
  • Commercial Support Base: The steady reduction in commercial net short exposure suggests hedgers and swap desks view prices near $60.00 as an attractive level to scale back hedges.
  • Low Liquidity Regime: Total market open interest at 107,047 contracts is near multi-month lows (down from >150k in January 2026). In an environment with diminished trader participation (149 reporting traders), price volatility can amplify rapidly on unexpected macro or physical supply disruptions.
  • Physical Streams Monitoring: For developments on COMEX physical inventories and warrant movements, refer to the Silver Warehouse & Delivery tracker alongside the broader Silver COT Overview.