Silver Futures Positioning Brief for the week of September 18, 2026

Executive summary

Speculators reduced their bullish bets in Silver futures (SI) during a week of price consolidation, while commercial participants covered some of their large net short position. Managed Money's net long position fell to +13,124 contracts, driven by both long liquidation and fresh short selling. In contrast, Swap Dealers, who hold a massive net short of -25,346 contracts, were notable buyers, reducing their short exposure. Total open interest remains near historical lows for the year, suggesting a lack of strong conviction, though it did tick slightly higher this week. The price action following this reporting period, which saw a sharp rally, is not reflected in this data and will be a key focus for next week's report.

Positioning

• Managed Money: The net long position for this speculative cohort decreased to +13,124 contracts (20,205 long vs 7,081 short). This is down from +14,386 contracts in the prior week but remains well above the 2026 low of around +4,983 contracts seen in February.
• Producer/Merchant: Commercial producers and users hold a net short position of -17,354 contracts (4,712 long vs 22,066 short). This is a typical hedging posture, and their net short position saw a minor reduction this week.
• Swap Dealers: This group maintains the largest net short position at -25,346 contracts (22,736 long vs 48,082 short). This is a substantial reduction from their -27,391 net short position in the previous report. Swap dealers often take the other side of speculative longs.
• Non-Reportable (Retail): Small traders remain staunchly bullish, holding a net long of +17,374 contracts (25,086 long vs 7,712 short).

Flows and week-over-week changes

The reporting week ending September 15th saw a clear divergence between speculative and commercial flows. - Managed Money were net sellers of 1,262 contracts. This was composed of a reduction in long positions (-943 contracts) and an increase in short positions (+319 contracts). - Swap Dealers were the primary buyers, increasing their net position by 2,045 contracts. This was driven by a significant reduction in their short positions (-1,527 contracts) and a modest addition to longs (+518 contracts). - Producer/Merchants were small net buyers, reducing their net short position by 163 contracts. - Overall open interest saw a marginal increase of 495 contracts, indicating that the week's activity was not solely liquidation but also involved the establishment of new positions.

Commercials vs speculators

The classic market structure persists, with speculators positioned net long against a large commercial net short. - The combined commercial position (Producers + Swaps) stands at a formidable -42,700 contracts net short. This group absorbed the selling from money managers this week. - Speculative groups (Managed Money + Other Reportables) are collectively net long. The reduction in Managed Money longs this week slightly tempers the speculative bullish conviction seen in prior weeks. - The Non-Reportable "retail" crowd remains the most bullish category as a percentage of their gross position.

Open interest and participation

• Open Interest: Total open interest stands at 103,745 contracts, which is significantly lower than the highs above 150,000 contracts seen earlier in the year. The current level represents a market with reduced overall participation, which can sometimes lead to higher volatility on new catalysts.
• Concentration: The market shows significant concentration on the short side.
  • The largest 4 traders hold 30.9% of the net short position.
  • The largest 8 traders hold 45.9% of the net short position.
• This high concentration, likely among Swap Dealers and Commercials, poses a risk of a short-covering rally if prices were to break decisively higher.

Price context

The positioning data covers the week up to Tuesday, September 15. - During this period, the front-month SI future was largely range-bound, moving from a close of 64.255 on September 11 to 63.64 on September 15. - The net selling from Managed Money aligns with this period of price consolidation and slight weakness. - Crucially, this report does not capture the sharp price rally later in the week, where futures closed at 66.94 on Friday, September 18. The market's reaction to this rally will only be visible in the next COT report.

Risks and watchpoints

• Data Lag: The most immediate watchpoint is how positioning shifted during the +5% price rally that occurred after this data was collected (Sep 16-18). It is likely that Managed Money reversed their selling trend, and the next report will be crucial for confirming this.
• Concentrated Shorts: The large and concentrated commercial short position remains a key feature. While a natural part of hedging, its size makes it vulnerable to a squeeze, which could accelerate any fundamentally driven rally.
• Low Open Interest: A sustained move higher will likely require an expansion in open interest, signaling new capital entering the market. A rally on flat or falling open interest would suggest it's primarily short-covering and may be less sustainable.