Silver Futures COT Report: Week Ending February 13, 2026

Executive summary

This week's report reveals a significant capitulation and reset in Silver futures positioning following a period of extreme price volatility. Open interest has collapsed to the lowest level in over two months, driven by a substantial liquidation of speculative long positions. Managed Money has reduced its net long exposure to a multi-week low, indicating a washout of bullish conviction. Concurrently, Commercials (Producers/Merchants) and Swap Dealers used the recent price weakness to aggressively cover their short positions. The market now appears much "cleaner," with reduced speculative froth, which could set the stage for a more durable trend depending on the next catalyst.

Positioning (net, extremes vs recent weeks)

• Managed Money (Speculators): Net long position fell to just +4,569 contracts. This is the smallest net long held by this group in the provided 7-week dataset, down dramatically from a peak of +21,887 contracts in late December.
• Producer/Merchant (Commercials): Net short position shrank to -16,790 contracts. This is the least net short this category has been in recent history, indicating significant short-covering activity. For comparison, their net short was as large as -26,074 in early January.
• Swap Dealers: Net short position decreased to -25,373 contracts. While still substantially short, this is a notable reduction from levels near -30,000 contracts seen in prior weeks.

Flows and week-over-week changes

The reporting week was characterized by a sharp reduction in overall market participation, with participants closing out positions on both sides.

• Managed Money: This group was a net seller, primarily driven by the closure of long positions (-967 contracts) rather than adding new shorts (-553 contracts). The most significant change was a massive unwinding of spread positions (-4,560 contracts), signaling a broad de-risking.
• Producer/Merchant: Commercials were aggressive net buyers, covering 1,770 short contracts while only trimming 293 longs. This resulted in a net position change of +1,477 contracts, a strong indication they viewed recent prices as an opportunity to reduce hedges.
• Swap Dealers: This cohort was also a net buyer, adding 479 long contracts while simultaneously covering 1,606 short contracts. This reduction in their net short exposure often mirrors a decline in speculative long interest, which they are typically positioned against.
• Non-reportable (Retail): Smaller traders also liquidated, cutting 2,626 longs and 1,986 shorts, showing a broad exit from the market.

Commercials vs speculators

The classic positioning dynamic persists but has shifted in magnitude. Speculators (Managed Money) remain net long, while Commercials (Producers/Merchants) are net short. However, the conviction on both sides has diminished significantly. - The speculative net long of +4,569 contracts is a shadow of its former self, indicating the recent price plunge has forced a capitulation among trend-followers and money managers. - The commercial net short of -16,790 contracts is at a multi-week low. This reduction in hedging pressure can be seen as a constructive sign, suggesting producers are less inclined to lock in forward sales at current price levels.

Open interest and participation

• Total open interest collapsed by 9,539 contracts to 133,641, the lowest level in the provided dataset. The peak in early January was over 157,000 contracts.
• This sharp decline in open interest alongside a price drop and spec long liquidation is a classic sign of long capitulation, where bulls are forced to sell and exit the market, rather than new, aggressive shorts entering.
• The concentration on the short side remains notable. The largest four traders hold 27.0% of the net short position, and the largest eight traders hold 36.5%. This is typical for a market where a smaller number of large commercial and dealer entities provide liquidity against a more diffuse speculative base.

Price context

The positioning changes must be viewed in the context of the dramatic price action. The Silver front contract peaked near 117.83 on January 29th before crashing to a low of 70.41 on February 6th. - The bulk of the speculative long liquidation occurred during this collapse. - The current reporting week (covering trading from Feb 4 to Feb 10) captured the immediate aftermath of this low, including a sharp bounce back into the low 80s. - The fact that Managed Money continued to reduce its net long position during a price bounce suggests they were using the rally as an opportunity to exit remaining underwater positions. Commercials appear to have used the initial plunge to cover their shorts at favorable prices.

Risks and watchpoints

• Positioning Washout: With speculative length now at a multi-week low, the risk of further aggressive long liquidation is significantly reduced. The market is less crowded on the long side, creating a more stable base.
• Commercial Support: The sharp reduction in producer hedging is a key watchpoint. If this trend continues, it removes a significant source of natural selling pressure from the market.
• Dry Powder: Managed Money is now lightly positioned. This provides "dry powder" for fresh buying should a bullish narrative re-emerge. The market is now more sensitive to new inflows.
• Confirmation from Price: While positioning has reset, price action remains key. A failure to hold the recent bounce could see the light speculative positioning quickly flip to net short, initiating a new wave of selling pressure. Conversely, a sustained recovery could attract fresh speculative capital into a much less crowded trade.