Heating Oil COT — Week of September 25, 2026
Heating Oil COT Report: Week of September 25, 2026
Executive summary
The CFTC Disaggregated Commitments of Traders report for NY Harbor ULSD (Heating Oil) (HO) for the week ending September 25, 2026, reveals continued speculative de-risking and fresh short additions among trend-following accounts. Managed Money net length declined by 3,263 contracts week-over-week to +9,437 contracts, marking the lowest speculative net long stance since late June 2026. This contraction occurred alongside a modest reduction in total open interest (-2,219 to 274,811 contracts) and coincided with a price pullback from multi-month highs above $5.25/gal down to $4.7315/gal at the close of the reporting week. Commercial producers also trimmed gross exposures, reducing their aggregate net short position slightly to -83,131 contracts.
Positioning (net, extremes vs recent weeks)
- Managed Money: Net positioning stands at +9,437 contracts (35,142 gross longs vs. 25,705 gross shorts), a notable decline from the early September peak of +20,344 contracts (September 4, 2026) and significantly below the yearly high net long of +24,377 contracts recorded on February 6, 2026.
- Producer/Merchant: Commercial hedgers hold a net short position of -83,131 contracts (61,778 longs vs. 144,909 shorts), narrowing slightly from -84,085 contracts the previous week and well below the peak net short exposure seen in early 2026 (-112,090 contracts on January 30, 2026).
- Swap Dealers: Swaps remain firmly net long at +51,374 contracts (57,451 longs vs. 6,077 shorts), representing a steady presence compared to +49,826 contracts the previous week.
- Other Reportables: Shifted back to a net long stance of +1,194 contracts (9,726 longs vs. 8,532 shorts), reversing the previous week's net short of -3,747 contracts.
- Non-Reportable (Retail/Small Traders): Net length eased to +21,126 contracts (51,241 longs vs. 30,115 shorts) from +25,306 contracts previously.
Flows and week-over-week changes
| Trader Category | Long Change | Short Change | Spreading Change | Net Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Managed Money | -85 | +3,178 | -70 | -3,263 |
| Producer/Merchant | -715 | -1,669 | — | +954 |
| Swap Dealers | +1,193 | -355 | -81 | +1,548 |
| Other Reportables | +1,001 | -3,940 | -1,246 | +4,941 |
| Non-Reportable | -2,216 | +1,964 | — | -4,180 |
| Total Open Interest | -2,219 |
The dominant flow in the speculative book was short building (+3,178 contracts) rather than long liquidation (-85 contracts), indicating active positioning for downside or hedging momentum shifts.
Commercials vs speculators
- Speculative Retrenchment: Managed money net positioning has contracted for three consecutive weeks, dropping from +20,344 contracts on September 4 to +9,437 contracts on September 25. Speculative gross shorts increased to 25,705 contracts, the highest short exposure since July 10, 2026 (29,780 contracts).
- Commercial Hedging: Commercials accounted for 52.7% of total short open interest (144,909 contracts) and 22.5% of total long interest (61,778 contracts). The slight reduction in gross short hedging (-1,669 contracts) suggests producers eased short hedges into price weakness.
- Swap Dealer Buffer: Swap dealers continue to absorb selling pressure, holding 20.9% of total longs against just 2.2% of total shorts, lifting their net long stance by 1,548 contracts on the week.
Open interest and participation
- Aggregate Open Interest: Total open interest decreased by 2,219 contracts (-0.80%) to 274,811 contracts, continuing a steady consolidation from the winter peak of 381,075 contracts (January 30, 2026).
- Trader Breadth: Active reporting traders fell from 170 to 165. Managed money long participants decreased from 33 to 30, while managed money short participants rose from 15 to 17.
- Concentration Ratios:
- Top 4 Traders: Account for 11.6% of net long open interest and 14.1% of net short open interest (13.8% gross long, 18.2% gross short).
- Top 8 Traders: Account for 17.2% of net long and 19.9% of net short open interest (22.4% gross long, 29.3% gross short).
Price context
2026-09-11: 4.9936
2026-09-14: 4.9866
2026-09-15: 5.2535 <-- Cycle Peak
2026-09-16: 5.2300
2026-09-17: 5.0466
2026-09-18: 5.0471
2026-09-21: 4.8680
2026-09-22: 4.8777
2026-09-23: 4.8350
2026-09-24: 4.7967
2026-09-25: 4.7315
The price of front-month Heating Oil (HO) peaked at $5.2535 on September 15, 2026, before embarking on an aggressive five-session decline to close at $4.7315 on September 25. The positioning data directly mirrors this sharp correction: money managers drove the downturn via +3,178 new short contracts as prices broke below the $5.00 psychological threshold.
Risks and watchpoints
- Speculative Momentum Continuation: Managed money gross shorts expanded by 14.1% in a single week. If price weakness persists below $4.70, additional short-selling could accelerate downward momentum.
- Support from Swap Longs: Swap dealers have consistently maintained long exposure above 55,000 contracts over recent weeks, providing structural demand on dips.
- Producer Cover Potential: If prices drop toward previous summer support levels near $4.00–$4.20, monitoring whether producer merchants aggressively buy back gross shorts (-144,909 contracts outstanding) will be critical to identifying a technical floor.