Gold Physical Delivery & Positioning Brief: October 7, 2026

Executive summary

Physical delivery activity on COMEX for Gold (GC) maintained a steady pace on October 7, 2026, registering 245 total delivery notices (issued and stopped). This brings month-to-date (MTD) cumulative deliveries to 12,074 contracts for the October 2026 COMEX 100 Gold Futures contract. Concurrently, October 2026 settlement prices eased to $4,113.80/oz, declining from early-month levels above $4,170/oz. A cross-check against recent positioning data reveals a pronounced speculative net-long stance (+120,318 contracts in Managed Money), underscoring that speculative sentiment remains extended even as physical delivery demand steadily absorbs available contract notices.

Delivery intentions (today + MTD context)

Physical delivery notices for October 7, 2026, totaled 245 contracts across standard and micro contracts, all scheduled for delivery on October 9, 2026:

• October 2026 COMEX 100 Gold Futures:
  • Issued / Stopped: 165 contracts (settlement price: $4,113.80 USD)
  • Month-to-Date Cumulative: 12,074 contracts
• October 2026 Micro Gold Futures:
  • Issued / Stopped: 80 contracts (settlement price: $4,113.80 USD)
  • Month-to-Date Cumulative: 3,090 contracts

Trend Context

• Intake Run-Rate: Following an initial month-opening surge on October 2 (1,021 total contracts issued, including 860 micro contracts), daily delivery activity has stabilized. Recent daily totals show steady intake: 202 notices on October 5, 271 notices on October 6, and 245 notices today.
• Pricing Dynamic: Settlement values for the active October delivery cycle have retreated over the last five sessions, moving down from $4,172.90 on October 1 to $4,113.80 on October 7. Despite this pullback of roughly $59/oz, physical notices continue to clear with immediate stops matching issuances daily.

Warehouse stocks

• COMEX Warehouse Stocks: CME warehouse stock data is not published in this data feed for gold (warehouse_stocks is null). As a result, eligible vs. registered stock shifts and available warrant coverage cannot be directly assessed from this report.

COT cross-check

The latest CFTC Commitments of Traders (COT) report as of October 2, 2026, outlines the following profile against total Open Interest of 406,456 contracts:

• Managed Money: 131,711 long vs. 11,393 short (Net long: +120,318 contracts)
• Producer / Merchant / Processor / User: 18,200 long vs. 39,463 short (Net short: -21,263 contracts)

Physical vs. Positioning Dynamic: Speculative positioning is heavily skewed to the upside, with Managed Money long positions outnumbering shorts by more than 11 to 1. This significant speculative exposure aligns with robust early-month delivery absorption (surpassing 12,000 standard contracts MTD). However, the softening settlement price over the past several sessions introduces a potential vulnerability if speculative momentum halts and longs begin taking profits while physical delivery notices taper off.

Risks and watchpoints

• Speculative Long Overhang: With Managed Money holding 131,711 gross longs against just 11,393 shorts, any further macro-driven price breakdown below $4,113.80 could trigger long liquidation.
• Delivery Run-Rate Deceleration: Monitor whether standard GC delivery notices slow substantially following the first week of October, which could signal that commercial absorption capacity for the spot cycle is nearing exhaustion.
• Commercial Hedging Pressure: Keep track of commercial net-short positioning (-21,263 contracts); an increase in commercial producer shorting into price rallies could limit upward momentum.